Flash Flood Warning 84, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
338 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE...NOW THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SUFFICIENTLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA...WILL BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

THE MOST PROBLEMATIC SITUATION IS HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES THE
EMBEDDED CIRCULATION THAT STARTED OUT IN SOUTHERN TX...MOVED
THROUGH THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND INTO KANSAS. THE MID-LEVEL MESOSCALE
LOW AND/OR MCV WILL WOBBLE ACROSS MO AND SEWD TOWARD THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE PRE-EXISTING
WNW-ESE ORIENTED 925-850 MB BOUNDARY STILL DRAPED ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE REGION...THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY ENHANCE POP/WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FINER RESOLUTION SREF AND
DETERMINISTIC WRF-NAM APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
FEATURE VERSUS THE LARGER GRID-SPACED GFS/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE.
WITH THIS IN MIND...POP AND WEATHER WERE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

ONCE THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE ALREADY IN THE UPPER MID-WEST AND WESTERN U.S. WILL BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA...RAISING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY...EAST
OF THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AND ALONG THE NORTH END OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

UNLIKE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES...THERE IS A LITTLE LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT VALUES THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT /GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MO
TO SOUTHWEST IN/ OF VALUES MAY BE TOO HIGH. FOR NOW...THESE VALUES
HAVE BEEN SET TO MORE COLLABORATIVELY MATCH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICE
GRID FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ADAPTED FROM 809 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011 DISCUSSION/
AT THE KCGI...AND POSSIBLY KPAH...THERE WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 12Z, SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.
THERE COULD BE MORE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE KCGI
AND KPAH AREAS. COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED...SINCE THE
FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ML
SHORT/LONG TERM PUBLIC...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
434 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-141000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
434 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AND COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AS THEY DECAY.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT
CARMI...THE BIG MUDDY RIVER IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND SEVERAL
POINTS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NORTH OF THE CONFLUENCE WITH
THE OHIO RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE PURCHASE AREA OF WEST
KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY...THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS AT THIS TIME.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE LITTLE
WABASH RIVER AT CARMI...THE BIG MUDDY RIVER IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
AND SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NORTH OF THE CONFLUENCE
WITH THE OHIO RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SMITH