Flash Flood Warning 78, NWS Paducah, KY

442 
WGUS73 KPAH 080203
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
903 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011

ILC191-080500-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0078.000000T0000Z-110708T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE IL-
903 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

AT 900 PM CDT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED MOVING NORTH FROM
HAMILTON COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES CLOSE
TO 2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR WERE REPORTED IN THE FAIRFIELD AREA...AND
MORE HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH 1000 PM.

DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS WATER COVERED ROADS. THE DANGERS OF HIGH WATER
ARE HARDER TO RECOGNIZE AT NIGHT.

LAT...LON 3860 8815 3847 8814 3826 8815 3825 8870
      3861 8870

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
622 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WKY WILL CONTINUE ITS
SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT THRU EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...MORE ROBUST
MCV RELATED CONVECTION OVER MO LIKEWISE MAKES EASTWARD APPROACH.
NAM MODELS WARM SECTOR RELATED CONVECTION OVER SCNTL MO-NE AR TO
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...WHILE DRIVING NCNTL MO MCV RELATED
CONVECTION EAST TO MS VALLEY BEFORE DIVING SE ACROSS PAH FA IN
PARENT UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW. THUS HAVE HIKED POPS UP CONSIDERABLY
TONIGHT...THOUGH MAY SCALE BACK PENDING COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THRU PRESS TIME. SWODY1 CONTINUES OUTLOOK OF
SLGT RISK FOR WRN 1/2 FA AT THIS WRITING.

TOMORROW SHOULD SEE POPS WINDING DOWN WEST TO EAST AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROF SCOOTS EAST. MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS REBOUNDING IN THE WAKE
OF THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH STRONG RIDGING CREATING A HOTTER
AND DRIER FORECAST FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE GENERAL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SUBSIDENCE
MORE OR LESS PREVALENT THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK...DESPITE MODEL FLIRTATIONS WITH A DIRTYING OF THE HIGH
BY MID WEEK OR SO. NEVERTHELESS POPS LOOK TO REMAIN 10-20 PERCENT
OR LESS...ISOLATED IN NATURE...AND WILL LET COLLAB EFFORTS DICTATE
WHEN/WHERE THAT'S INCLUDED.

BOTH ECMWF/GFS RESTRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH FOR NEXT WEEKEND
FOR WHAT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER HOT AND DRY ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID EVENING WITH ISOLD CONVECTION POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY KPAH. AFT 03-04Z...INCLUDE SHRA AT THE SITES WITH VCTS
FOR NOW...AND WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY (GIVEN UNCERTAINTY). LONG
TERM OVERVIEW...END PRECIP CHANCES EARLY FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
336 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-081000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
336 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
PRIMARY THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN...BUT IF A SEVERE STORM OCCURS...THE
PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LINGERING FRIDAY MORNING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDES THE
LEFTOVER SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS UPON THEIR DEPARTURE FROM
THE AREA BY ABOUT MIDDAY.

THE CHANCE OF STORMS THEN LEAVES THE FORECAST UNTIL RE-ENTERING AS
A VERY ISOLATED AND MINIMAL CHANCE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HEAT OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MAINTAIN ALERT STATUS IN CASE THEIR ACTIVATION IS
REQUESTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
746 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-MOZ076-086-087-080215-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU
746 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011

...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 740 PM...REGIONAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS SHOWED A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES HAVE
BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS. SOME STORMS HAVE PRODUCED MORE
THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR WITH SOME STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 3 INCHES.

AS THE STORMS SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI THIS EVENING...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY IN
SOME AREAS. AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE PRIMARY HAZARD DOES APPEAR TO BE
HEAVY RAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR MORE
STATEMENTS...AND POSSIBLY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS.

NOLES