Flash Flood Warning 68, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
221 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND ESPECIALLY
QPF WITH ONGOING SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CATASTROPHIC FLOODING ACROSS
A GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA.

A NE-SW ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS
RIPPLES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SAME
AREA...AND THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

WITH MID LEVEL (700-500MB) FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COMBINED WITH
WARM RAIN PROCESSES MAKING THE QPF PRODUCTION EXTREMELY
EFFICIENT... WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT...FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUMPED FORECAST QPF A FEW NOTCHES ABOVE
HPC GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY MORNING THE MAIN AXIS OF THE H5 TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION
WHICH WILL PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST...THUS
ENDING THE PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST. EVEN THOUGH RAIN WILL HAVE
FINALLY ENDED...RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT UNPRECEDENTED LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE REGION
DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIP
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE ON FRIDAY...PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. AS THE SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM CROSSES OUR CWA THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BEYOND MONDAY...SO FOR THE TIME
BEING WILL JUST GO WITH 14 POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH THE BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE TAF SITES AND ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...UPPER IFR/LOWER MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DO NOT PLAN TO
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 13Z-14Z TUESDAY FOR KCGI/KPAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

KES/JAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
319 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-032030-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
319 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
QUAD STATE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ONE TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE FLOODING SITUATION THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE THROUGH TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE MOST CURRENT INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DAILY FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. BRIEF...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

MODERATE TO MAJOR AND EVEN RECORD FLOODING WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK ALONG MOST RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE MOST CURRENT
INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY NEW FLOODING PROBLEMS AS WELL AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.