Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

.AVIATION...
MAIN ISSUES THIS EVENING ARE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING SFC FRONT AND
CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE VICINITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SITES WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS THIS EVENING AT SEVERAL SITES. OTHERWISE SFC
FRONT WILL APPROACH RED RIVER TUE AFTN WITH NE/E WIND MOST
LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS THIS EVENING ON
BOTH SIDES OF FRONT FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011/

.DISCUSSION...FIRES...HEAT AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TAKE EQUAL
PRECEDENCE THIS EVENING. A NOTABLE FRONT WAS BEST DEFINED FROM THE
PANHANDLES INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WAS MASKED A BIT
OVER KANSAS...BY SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE RISES AND DISRUPTION OF THE
SURFACE WINDS THAT OCCURRED BENEATH ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY. A
LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WAS ANCHORED BY AT TIGHTLY WOUND
CIRCULATION ON THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF
TROUGHING INTO OKLAHOMA. AS THIS FEATURE SWINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WE SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL LIFT...AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS DICTATE
THAT THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE MODELS
SUGGEST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE WIND
SHIFT...THOUGH THE RUC AND NAM LOOK REASONABLE. WE WILL KEEP THE
RED FLAG WARNING TO ITS 9 PM EXPIRATION. THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE
IMPORTANT INFORMATION TO CREWS IN THE FIELD.

COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO A FULLY MIXED ATMOSPHERE...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
AT LOW TO MID LEVELS...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...THERE SHOULD
BE SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES 105 TO 110 DEGREES AND LOW HUMIDITY BELOW CLOUD BASE
SUGGEST LOCALLY INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT FROM ANY MATURE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT SHOULD OCCUR IN A SMALL TIME WINDOW
THROUGH SUNSET. BUT A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST...AND THIS
MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS OVERNIGHT...ALONG A CONTINUED
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE TO THE RED RIVER AND REMAIN IN PLACE
MORE ORE LESS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. INHERITED GRIDS LOOK IN GOOD
SHAPE REGARDING A SLIGHTLY LESS HOT...BUT MORE HUMID AIR MASS...AND
INCREASE OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THIS WEEK. AFTER
ALLOWING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING...WE WILL
TACK ON KINGFISHER...LOGAN...AND STILLWATER TO THE HEAT ADVISORY
THAT WILL GO INTO EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77 102  74 100 /  30  10  30  20
HOBART OK         79 103  78 103 /  20  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  82 109  81 107 /  10  20  20  10
GAGE OK           68  99  71  97 /  20  20  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  74  95 /  40  10  30  40
DURANT OK         80 104  79 103 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ011>031-
     033>040-044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     OKZ018>048-050>052.

TX...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

09/22
BURKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
620 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN THIS EVENING.

LOCATION...
AFFECTED LOCATIONS WILL BE NORTH OF HOLLIS...LAWTON...PAULS
VALLEY...AND ADA. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE-40.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR
THIS FRONT. THE HOT AND DRY AIRMASS BELOW CLOUD BASES WILL ALLOW THE
STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY AUG 9.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WIND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH
EXTREMELY HIGH TEMPERATURE AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO CAUSE VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME WILDFIRE POTENTIAL TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR DETAILS.

DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. PLEASE
SEE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
THE RED RIVER INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON... WITH
THE CHANCE OF STORMS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THOUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
FROM THE RECENT EXTREME HEAT THIS WEEK... HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SEE
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.

DRY VEGETATION AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
HIGH IN LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT MEASURE RAIN THIS WEEK.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
854 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     TSTM WND GST     TINKER AIR FORCE BASE   35.42N 97.39W
08/08/2011  M63 MPH          OKLAHOMA           OK   ASOS

&&

MA

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