Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD HEAT NEXT 2 DAYS. HEAT INDICES
CURRENTLY 105-113 ON AXIS SPS-OKC-SWO AREAS. PROJECTED MAX VALUES
SUNDAY ARE JUST BELOW 105 OVER MOST OF CENTRAL OK BUT AGAIN 105-110
SW OK AND OUR TX ZONES. WE WILL RIDE WITH THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO STRESS THE NEED FOR EXTRA
CAUTION IN THE HWO IN MOST AREAS WHERE VALUES WILL AT LEAST
APPROACH 105 THIS WEEKEND.

FIRE WATCH IS UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNING. WE HAVE ADDED A FEW
COUNTIES IN NW OK AND IN TX WHERE RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP
WELL BELOW 20 PCT.

PRECIP CHANCES LIKELY LIMITED TO E AND N PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
SFC CIRCULATION IS STATIONARY JUST W OF ENID. CHANCES N ARE WITH S
END OF E-MOVING MCS ACROSS KS. STORM-SCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN INITIATING STORMS FROM SCENTRAL/SE OK TOWARD ABILENS
LATE TODAY SO WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING IN OUR SE
ZONES. WILL ALSO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING NEAR DRYLINE ACROSS OUR W BASED ON LATEST NAM QPF.

POTENT SYSTEM FOR LATE JUNE EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. THIS
COULD BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY - THE MAIN QUESTION FOR OUR
AREA IS WHETHER THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME. AT THIS TIME WE THINK IT
WILL HOLD IN MOST AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON... THUS LOW POPS
MONDAY ARE CONFINED TO NCENTRAL OK. CHANCES INCREASE AS STORMS
BUILD S ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
AN END TO THE RECORD HEAT... AS HIGHS TUESDAY DROP BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

STANDARD INITIALIZATION FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75 102  75  98 /  20  10  10  10
HOBART OK         78 106  78 103 /  20  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  79 108  79 104 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           69 109  73 104 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     73 102  78  97 /  20  10  10  20
DURANT OK         77 102  75  99 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ004-005-009-
     010-014-021-033-034-036.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ037>039-044-045.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ084>090.

&&

23/24

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
349 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

OKZ045-046-182115-
JEFFERSON OK-CARTER OK-
349 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CARTER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES.

AT 349 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER RINGLING...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3438 9732 3419 9722 3407 9761 3424 9769

WR