Severe Thunderstorm Warning 598, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT TERMINALS IN CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL
OK THROUGH MID EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA COULD
BE SEVERE. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
SW OK AND WESTERN N-TX. THE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR FROM KOKC TO KSPS. GENERALLY VFR CLEAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AFT 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL
EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH INITIATION NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM. OVERALL MOVEMENT WILL BE
SOUTHEAST. GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST-THIRD OF
CWA DURING THE EVENING AS COMPLEX OF STORMS GROWS UPSCALE ALONG
INSTABILITY AXIS. ONCE THE RAIN EXITS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WE
COULD SEE SOME FOG OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR AND EAST OF STALLED SURFACE
TROUGH...WHICH IS PROGD TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JUST WEST
OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT. FRONT IS
STILL PROGD TO MOVE THROUGH REGION LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. POST FRONTAL CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO POP
STRUCTURE IN EXTENDED PERIODS BUT DID COOL TEMPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  78  54  83 /  30   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  81  53  84 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  81  56  84 /  30   0   0   0
GAGE OK           47  78  48  83 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     48  78  50  84 /  20   0   0   0
DURANT OK         59  81  59  84 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

30/11/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-231000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1112 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES THE AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
STILLWATER TO WATONGA TO HOBART OKLAHOMA...TO VERNON AND SEYMOUR
TEXAS.

WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL...FROM THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA
SOUTHWARD ALONG INTERSTATE 35 AND INTERSTATE 44 INTO NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM TO
11 PM.

IMPACTS...
THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE DAMAGING HAIL 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...
WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THE RISK OF TORNADOES IS LOW...BUT PEOPLE SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
CHANGES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. A
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA LATE TODAY...RESULTING IN SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR VERY
QUICKLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM...AND THE FIRST STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH MOVEMENT THEN TOWARD THE SOUTH
AND EAST.

WIND SHEAR TODAY IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL.
AS STORMS MERGE TO FORM LARGER LINE SEGMENTS...THE RISK OF STRONG
WINDS WILL INCREASE. A LACK OF WIND SHEAR NEAR THE GROUND WILL HELP
TO MINIMIZE THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES...BUT PEOPLE SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT...AS THE SITUATION MAY CHANGE LOCALLY.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE IN THE LATE EVENING...AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY OCT 21.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS FROM TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTEWORTHY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE 80S WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS. HUMIDITY...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT OVER MOST
OF THE REGION.

UNSCHEDULED UPDATES TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ARE LIKELY TO
BE ISSUED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXWELL/BURKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
840 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             6 E TUTTLE              35.29N 97.71W
10/22/2011  E1.25 INCH       GRADY              OK   PUBLIC

&&

FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
856 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             GERTY                   34.84N 96.29W
10/22/2011  E1.75 INCH       HUGHES             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

FM

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