Severe Thunderstorm Warning 546, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED OR EVEN NUMEROUS STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. WITH STRONGLY BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR/NORTH OF SLOWLY
RETREATING WARM FRONT...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC
ACTIVITY IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN A DISCRETE NATURE. STORMS PROGD
TO GROW UPSCALE INTO MCS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ANY MCS COULD APPROACH I-40 CORRIDOR
INCLUDING METRO AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
JET INTERACTIONS INCREASE. OTHERWISE MORE IN THE WAY OF ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH TO AND SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT THIS
ACTIVITY NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AFTER SUNSET.

SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES CONTINUE TOMORROW ALONG AND AHEAD OF
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WITH
MODEST DEEP SHEAR AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CAPE WOULD BE AN AREA
NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR - PER SWODY2. LESS ACTIVE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN EVEN STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT...WHICH ARE PROGD TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LATEST ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD GFS SOLUTION
OF CUTTING OFF PORTION OF TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT IS
FARTHER EAST. BOTH SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A CLOUDY/COOLER THAN AVERAGE
STRETCH OF WEATHER BUT DRY. THIS TREND IS ALREADY IN GRIDS AND
WILL NOT MAKE ANY NEW INITIALIZATIONS THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  87  63  84 /  40  40  40   0
HOBART OK         68  88  60  85 /  30  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  90  66  87 /  30  40  40   0
GAGE OK           63  84  50  87 /  30  20  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  82  58  83 /  70  50  30   0
DURANT OK         68  87  68  85 /  40  50  60  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-181300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
445 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA... AND MAY EXTEND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LOCATION...
THE RISK INCLUDES THE AREA WEST OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER
TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO LAWTON AND WICHITA FALLS...TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 2 AM.

IMPACTS...
SOME DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES...ROOFTOPS...AND TENDER VEGETATION FROM
LARGE HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS UNTIL 2 AM.

DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS HAVE HELPED TRANSPORT VERY HUMID AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SURFACE HEATING HAS YIELDED MODERATE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE RISK AREA.

A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ANY SUPERCELL STORMS
WOULD ALSO MOVE MORE SLOWLY...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

STORM INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS SUNSET APPROACHES BUT
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.  HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS AFTER DARK.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY SEP 18.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH TODAY WILL BE HUMID...THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED RISK OF
FIRES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...OWING TO BREEZY
WINDS...DRY FUELS...AND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ON SUNDAY... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. BY AFTERNOON... THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS A COLD
FRONT ENCOUNTERS WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

MUCH OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR DRY...BUT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
BY 5AM SUNDAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
455 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             4 SE WOODWARD           36.39N 99.34W
09/17/2011  E1.00 INCH       WOODWARD           OK   PUBLIC

&&

FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
505 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             1 S RETROP              35.16N 99.37W
09/17/2011  E1.25 INCH       BECKHAM            OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

FM