Severe Thunderstorm Warning 528, NWS Norman, OK

421 
WWUS54 KOUN 182135
SVSOUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
435 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

OKC011-047-073-093-182145-
/O.CAN.KOUN.SV.W.0528.000000T0000Z-110818T2145Z/
BLAINE OK-GARFIELD OK-KINGFISHER OK-MAJOR OK-
435 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MAJOR...NORTHWESTERN KINGFISHER...SOUTHWESTERN GARFIELD
AND NORTHEASTERN BLAINE COUNTIES...

THE STORM HAS WEAKENED... BUT GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH MAY STILL OCCUR.

LAT...LON 3626 9788 3604 9790 3595 9812 3607 9836
      3628 9840 3639 9829 3640 9799
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 344DEG 2KT 3624 9815

$$


CMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
251 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING SE PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN PORTIONS
OF FA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. IF STORMS DEVELOP... STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MAY MOVE INTO NE PORTIONS OF FA LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING FROM AN
MCS THAT DEVELOPS IN EASTERN NE/KS LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING. IF THIS
BOUNDARY DOES COME INTO THE FA AND MAINTAINS ITSELF... IT MAY BE
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY FRI AFTN/EVENING.

MODELS SHOW A COOL FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING INTO THE FA
SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... TEMPERATURES BEFORE THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY HOT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY. IF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BOUNDARY DOES MOVE INTO THE FA SATURDAY SOME OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED. MODELS ALSO SHOW A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE FA SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS
AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... BUT
WINDS APPEAR THAT THEY WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.
HOWEVER... DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THE FIRE CONDITIONS.

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS DRAGGING ANOTHER COOL FRONT INTO
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 104  76 107  78 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK        106  78 107  78 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX 107  81 108  83 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK          104  77 106  75 /  10  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK    103  78 107  77 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK        104  82 106  82 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

03/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-
WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1148 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG HEATING WILL LIKELY REMOVE ANY CAP THAT REMAINS THIS
AFTERNOON... EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE CLOUD COVER
PERSISTS. NO OBVIOUS FORCING MECHANISMS CAN BE PINPOINTED... BUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY STILL OCCUR. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ARE BOTH WEAK... WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED. GIVEN THE VERY HOT AND DRY AIR BELOW CLOUD BASE... ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SUBSIDE FOLLOWING SUNSET.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY AUG 19.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...40 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HOT TEMPERATURES... DRY VEGETATION... AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO KEEP WILDFIRE POTENTIAL VERY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY... HOT TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
DIFFICULT THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AFTER THE
WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY HOT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THE
PERSISTENT HEAT WILL BE A CONCERN. PLEASE SEE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
DETAILS. ALSO DURING THIS TIME...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL VERY HIGH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
FRIDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
353 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

OKZ011-012-182130-
GARFIELD OK-MAJOR OK-
353 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GARFIELD AND MAJOR COUNTIES.

AT 353 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST
OF ISABELLA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM WAS PART OF A GROUP
OF STORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF FAIRVIEW TO NEAR DRUMMOND.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3628 9801 3616 9811 3616 9846 3645 9838
      3645 9809

CMS