Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

.AVIATION...
23/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 6
TO 9 HOURS...BEFORE MOIST VEERING WIND PROFILE COMMENCES NEAR/NORTH
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD VFR/MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NEAR STALLED FRONT...PRIMARILY ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. WILL MINIMIZE USE OF RA/TSRA FOR TOMORROW.

WILL INCLUDE CB IN KOKC/KOUN DUE TO PROXIMITY TO STORMS SE OF
TERMINALS. STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT KSPS FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF
FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN THIS AFTERNOON CURRENTLY EXTENDING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OK. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO EVENTUALLY STALL THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. WIND SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS... AND MAYBE A FEW TORNADOES. MODELS NOW SHOW A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE FA FORCING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NORTH SOME OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE FRONT AS LLJ INCREASES
SPREADING THE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONT. A FEW OF THESE
ELEVATED STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THE EXACT LOCATIONS
FOR BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON WHAT
HAPPENS THE DAY/NIGHT BEFORE AND POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODELS SHOW THE FRONT MOVING BACK SOUTH SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWING
DOWN/STALLING. HERE THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR
WITH GFS HOLDING THE FRONT A LITTLE BIT FURTHER NORTH IN THE CWA
THAN THE NAM. HOWEVER... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE
SW UPPER FLOW. MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION FOR RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS
HEELS AFFECTING THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW UPPER
RIDGING THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. SEVERE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  70  56  67 /  40  30  50  50
HOBART OK         59  74  51  67 /  20  20  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  84  61  77 /  40  30  40  30
GAGE OK           45  64  42  62 /  10  10  40  20
PONCA CITY OK     53  64  50  62 /  50  40  50  50
DURANT OK         68  82  65  77 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
441 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-231000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
441 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES THE AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
STILLWATER TO KINGFISHER TO FREDERICK OKLAHOMA...TO GRAYBACK AND
SEYMOUR TEXAS.

TIMING...
ONE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...
CARRYING PRIMARILY A RISK OF LARGE HAIL...MAY FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES...ROOFTOPS...AND VEGETATION FROM
HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

A FEW TORNADOES...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
RISK AREA...TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF BOTH OKLAHOMA CITY AND WICHITA
FALLS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM
ALTUS... TO OKLAHOMA CITY... TO TULSA HAVE PRODUCED A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE.  ALTHOUGH GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
SHALLOW...ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST
OF BOTH OKLAHOMA CITY AND WICHITA FALLS...WITH MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
EAST. WIND SHEAR IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH THE MAIN
RISK BEING VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL. TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY OWING TO THE VERY STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH
CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 4000. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST IN THE
FORM OF SUPERCELLS THROUGH EVENING. IF A LARGE NUMBER OF STORMS IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP...SOME GROWTH INTO A LINE OR CLUSTER MAY OCCUR...AND
THIS WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THEN...AFTER MIDNIGHT...A SECOND ROUND OF ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR...WHEN
THE LOW LEVEL JET CARRIES UNSTABLE AIR UP TO THE NORTH OF THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT. STORMS ROOTED WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY DEVELOP
TOWARD THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...
CARRYING A RISK OF LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY APR 23.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
EPISODES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR...OFF AND ON...
EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE
PRESENCE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BENEATH MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH ADEQUATE GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A DRYLINE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BECOME EXTREME BEHIND
THE DRYLINE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM SATURDAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             3 E PINK                35.26N 97.07W
04/22/2011  E1.75 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       OK   PUBLIC

&&

CM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
643 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             4 W TECUMSEH            35.26N 97.00W
04/22/2011  E1.25 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       OK   PUBLIC

0621 PM     HAIL             3 W PAOLI               34.83N 97.32W
04/22/2011  M1.50 INCH       GARVIN             OK   STORM CHASER

&&

TAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
651 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     HAIL             WICHITA FALLS           33.91N 98.50W
04/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       WICHITA            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
652 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     HAIL             4 WSW BYARS             34.85N 97.12W
04/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       GARVIN             OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

TAYLOR