Severe Thunderstorm Warning 465, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
624 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ABOUT THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OK
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 03Z AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH
INTO KS. ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID EVENING NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM
SOUTH OF THE OKC METRO AREA INTO WEST CENTRAL OK. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE BACK INTO PARTS OF FAR
NORTHERN OK LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR A WEAK FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011/

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THE HEAT REMAINS THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY... THERE WILL
BE SCATTERED STORMS TO DEAL WITH THIS EVENING. LOCAL WRF AND HRRR
FORECAST DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WITH THE AREA OF STORMS LIFTING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SOUTH WILL GIVE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE A CERTAINTY INTO THIS EVENING... WILL
INITIALLY KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE GIVEN THE
CURRENT UNCERTAINTIES OF AREAL COVERAGE.

OTHERWISE THE HOT WEATHER CONTINUES WITH NO CHANGE IN FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE FRONT AND ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
/BUT STILL HOT/ TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. THERE STILL REMAINS THE
SIGNAL IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF THE POTENTIAL OF A SLIGHT
PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT COULD
TAKE THE EDGE OF THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES... ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN THE PACKAGE AREAWIDE WITH THIS
PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80 108  78 106 /  10  10   0  10
HOBART OK         82 108  81 108 /  10  10   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  84 111  83 110 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           74 102  75 106 /  40  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     79 107  79 105 /  40  20  20  20
DURANT OK         84 110  83 107 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

11/30/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
430 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...PRIMARILY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE-40.

DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA WILL BE
A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIRMASS NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT WILL BE UNSTABLE. THIS WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SOONER STATE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH VERY DRY VEGETATION...SOME OF THE STORMS
THAT DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL MAY YIELD WILDFIRES FROM THE
LIGHTNING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY AUG 4.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERE STORMS...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS
HEAT INDICES FOR OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST VERSION OF THIS
PRODUCT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

HOT...DRY WEATHER...COMBINED WITH STRESSED AND DORMANT VEGETATION...
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF WILDFIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE PERSISTENT HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNABATED FOR MOST OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE WILDFIRE RISK WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY...WHEN STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
THURSDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
454 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

OKZ015-032215-
DEWEY OK-
454 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR DEWEY COUNTY.

AT 454 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TALOGA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3615 9901 3607 9877 3592 9895 3598 9907

..SPEG.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
508 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SSE RED ROCK          36.37N 97.13W
08/03/2011  M77 MPH          NOBLE              OK   MESONET

&&

NWS NORMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
520 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

OKZ012-018-032245-
GARFIELD OK-KINGFISHER OK-
520 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GARFIELD AND KINGFISHER
COUNTIES.

AT 521 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER LACEY...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3616 9817 3619 9789 3597 9802 3603 9821

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
533 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

OKZ020-026-032300-
LINCOLN OK-PAYNE OK-
533 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR LINCOLN AND PAYNE COUNTIES.

AT 533 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CARNEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3605 9702 3588 9683 3576 9714 3593 9713

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
534 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

OKZ010-015-032245-
DEWEY OK-WOODWARD OK-
534 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR DEWEY AND WOODWARD COUNTIES.

AT 534 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CESTOS...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3626 9928 3624 9903 3601 9906 3603 9929

..SPEG.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
622 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

OKZ012-032335-
GARFIELD OK-
622 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GARFIELD COUNTY.

AT 622 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR VANCE AIR
FORCE BASE AND NEAR HAYWARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF DIMES HAS BEEN REPORTED AT VANCE AIR FORCE BASE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3640 9746 3633 9746 3622 9747 3632 9801
      3643 9785

..SPEG.