Severe Thunderstorm Warning 448, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
211 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR ISSUE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT/SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA. THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY IS
NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION IN KANSAS
WHILE THE STORMS IN THE SOUTH ARE WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
DEVELOPED. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERYWHERE
INTO EARLY EVENING... WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO END
AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER... RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN OK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY DUE HEATING OF THE BETTER MOISTURE THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE
REGION.

UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK
CONTINUING THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND... WILL EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79 100  77 102 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         80 102  80 105 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  79 104  82 106 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           74 102  76 104 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78 101  80 104 /  20  20  10  10
DURANT OK         78  98  79 100 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

06/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1145 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS OVER 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

DISCUSSION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHER STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.  STORM INTENSITY WILL DECREASE DURING THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING HOURS.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...ANY STORMS THAT
OCCUR WILL POSE A THREAT TO PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRES ARE ALSO A HAZARD.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY JUL 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT...AS A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE
CONTINUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS TROPICAL STORM DON TO MOVE
INLAND OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL NOT AFFECT
NORTH TEXAS OR OKLAHOMA DIRECTLY. INCREASED HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...HOWEVER...MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ON DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE HEAT ADVISORY IS EFFECTIVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND IS LIKELY TO BE
EXTENDED WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
NO SIGNS THAT THE HEAT WAVE MAY BREAK. UNUSUALLY DRY VEGETATION WILL
ALSO MAINTAIN VERY HIGH WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ON BREEZY
DAYS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM SATURDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
151 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

OKZ041-042-291900-
MURRAY OK-PONTOTOC OK-
151 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR MURRAY AND PONTOTOC
COUNTIES.

AT 150 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF
HICKORY. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3474 9685 3472 9658 3451 9660 3452 9689

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
207 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

OKZ039-045-046-050-291930-
CARTER OK-JEFFERSON OK-LOVE OK-STEPHENS OK-
207 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CARTER...JEFFERSON...LOVE
AND STEPHENS COUNTIES.

AT 206 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF
RINGLING. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.  BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3434 9761 3428 9733 3390 9745 3391 9751
      3389 9755 3390 9758 3391 9760 3396 9761
      3399 9768 3389 9778 3387 9782

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

OKZ005-010-011-015-292015-
DEWEY OK-WOODWARD OK-MAJOR OK-WOODS OK-
242 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR DEWEY...MAJOR...WOODS AND
WOODWARD COUNTIES.

AT 240 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM CLEO SPRINGS TO MUTUAL AND CAMARGO.  THE STORMS WERE DRIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.  WIND GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTING ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH...

LAT...LON 3666 9874 3637 9850 3597 9923 3625 9940

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

OKZ051-052-292045-
BRYAN OK-MARSHALL OK-
315 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BRYAN AND MARSHALL COUNTIES.

AT 314 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LAKE TEXOMA. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.  THIS STORM MAY
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT 30 MINUTES.  WIND GUSTS OVER
50 MPH AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3383 9662 3385 9664 3388 9660 3391 9665
      3390 9667 3386 9667 3383 9671 3382 9676
      3384 9678 3386 9679 3393 9666 3382 9654
      3381 9657

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

OKZ005-292115-
WOODS OK-
345 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WOODS COUNTY.

AT 345 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF
WAYNOKA. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALVA. THESE STORMS
ARE NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3694 9858 3659 9854 3646 9880 3672 9906

MAXWELL