Severe Thunderstorm Warning 436, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
249 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS... AND EVEN A SMALL T-STORM OR TWO... THAT ARE OCCURRING
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING. WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF AN
ISOLATED STORM IN NW OK FOR LATER TONIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT
A STORM OR TWO FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY REACHES THE REGION.

NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER... ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES COULD
MODULATE THE LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WAS LIKELY
AIDING SEVERAL SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THAT AREA. FOLLOWING THE
CONTINUITY OF THIS FEATURE WITH TIME IS DIFFICULT BUT THE MODELS
TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF OUR AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER... THEY ARE FORECASTING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE... THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM APPEARS TO BE BACKING OFF
ON THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT IT WAS ATTEMPTING TO PUSH
DEEP INTO OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. RATHER... IT IS STARTING TO TREND
MORE TOWARDS THE GFS IN WEAKENING ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT... WHICH
IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION.

OUTSIDE OF THE WEAK SYSTEMS MENTIONED... THE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78 102  78 102 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         80 105  82 103 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  80 105  81 105 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           76 104  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     81 105  82 103 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         80 101  80 100 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

03/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-231000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
255 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A NEGLIGIBLE CAP ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY HAS LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH A SHOWER WILL
BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WHERE CONVERGENCE ALOFT APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING MORE SUSTAINED LIFT.
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH ANY STORM.

AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW EACH EVENING
SINCE WEDNESDAY... AND LIES IN A POSITION FROM SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO... THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN THIS AREA COULD PUSH OUTFLOW AS FAR AS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... WITH ISOLATED STORMS BEING POSSIBLE THERE THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED. AS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY JUL 23.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAT STRESS CONTINUES TO COMPOUND DURING THE ONGOING PROLONGED HEAT
WAVE. FOR DETAILS REFER TO THE HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...HOWEVER...WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN
RELATIVELY FEW STORMS OF SHORT DURATION.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL PERSIST. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND MAY BE NECESSARY INTO NEXT WEEK. WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH TO VERY HIGH ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
SATURDAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
356 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

OKZ004-005-009-010-014-222130-
ELLIS OK-HARPER OK-WOODWARD OK-ROGER MILLS OK-WOODS OK-
356 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ELLIS...HARPER...ROGER
MILLS...WOODS AND WOODWARD COUNTIES.

AT 354 PM CDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WOODWARD TO FARGO...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. OTHER SHOWERS WERE
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF ARNETT... AS WELL AS NORTHEAST OF BUFFALO.
WHILE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON... THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS RAIN FALLS INTO HOT AND DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3694 9866 3665 9854 3648 9882 3651 9887
      3651 9896 3640 9896 3583 9990 3656 10002

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
359 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

OKZ022-023-222130-
CADDO OK-WASHITA OK-
359 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CADDO AND WASHITA COUNTIES.

AT 358 PM CDT...A RAIN SHOWER WHICH MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE WAS LOCATED OVER ALFALFA...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.
WHILE LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE... THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SHOWER WILL
BE VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AS RAIN FALLS INTO HOT AND DRY AIR AT LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3537 9871 3534 9843 3510 9851 3511 9863
      3513 9864 3511 9865 3512 9872

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
437 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

OKZ004-005-009-010-222200-
ELLIS OK-HARPER OK-WOODWARD OK-WOODS OK-
437 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ELLIS...HARPER...WOODS AND
WOODWARD COUNTIES.

AT 431 PM CDT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDED FROM NEAR ARNETT AND WOODWARD NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR LOOKOUT
AND WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AS RAIN FALLS INTO HOT AND
DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH...

LAT...LON 3658 9896 3620 9961 3644 9964 3700 9950
      3701 9896