Severe Thunderstorm Warning 400, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
635 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

.AVIATION...
A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SE OK WILL PROBABLY NOT AFFECT ANY OF
OUR TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT IT COULD SPREAD
W TO KSPS BY 03Z. A SECOND CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER SE CO AND NE NM
WILL MOVE E/SE THIS EVENING...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL
AFFECT KGAG TO KOUN AND N FROM THERE OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE
SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH THE SAME AREA LAST NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TSRA ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE TOMORROW AT MOST SITES...BUT THE CHANCES
ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR HOBART TO S OF
PAULS VALLEY AND CENTRAHOMA. AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
IS RATHER UNSTABLE WITH LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATING CAPE VALUES
OVER 3500 J/KG. 5-7H WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS SO ENOUGH FLOW
FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHER STORMS MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MAY EVENTUALLY
MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS...MOST STORMS SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE FA BY EARLY TO MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THUNDERSTORM/RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE SLIM. CENTER OF MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RETURNING
TO MOST AREAS. A LITTLE UNSURE ABOUT HUMIDITY LEVELS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES...BUT
MANY AREAS WILL SEE INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-105...WITH HIGHER
VALUES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SOME
RAINFALL.

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE AS HUMIDITY LEVELS
FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
SURFACE WINDS MAY BE MARGINAL ON WEDNESDAY FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
BUT CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WESTERN
PARTS OF FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74 100  79 100 /  30  30   0  10
HOBART OK         73 104  78 103 /  10  10   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  76 103  79 102 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           70 106  78 103 /  40  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  79 104 /  40  30   0  10
DURANT OK         75  97  80  99 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-010-014>016-021-022-033>037.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

11/23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
508 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-291000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
508 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA THROUGH LATE EVENING.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK COVERS LOCATIONS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 AND
SOUTH OF A PAULS VALLEY...TO ADA AND CALVIN LINE.

TIMING...
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE 5 PM THROUGH 10 PM.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF OF TENNIS BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BUILD LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND MOVE IN A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ALONG WITH MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF VERY DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. PERSONS OUTSIDE...ESPECIALLY BOATERS
ON AREA LAKES...SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF SKIES BEGIN TO
LOOK THREATENING.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS
MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO NORTHERN AND EVEN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. SOME STRONG WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY JUN 29.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION
WHERE ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO VERY HOT CONDITIONS
REGION-WIDE BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PLAN AHEAD
AND WORK DURING THE EARLY MORNING OR EVENING HOURS TO AVOID HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES. IF OUTDOORS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BE SURE TO USE
SUNSCREEN...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER OR SPORT DRINKS...AND SEEK SHADY
AREAS IF THEY ARE AVAILABLE.

EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRES ON HOT
AND WINDY DAYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
509 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

OKZ050-282230-
LOVE OK-
509 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR LOVE COUNTY.

AT 509 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF
WILSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
SMALL HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3398 9752 3407 9749 3407 9715 3392 9718

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
554 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

OKZ048-282300-
ATOKA OK-
554 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR NORTHEAST ATOKA COUNTY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PUSHMATAHA COUNTY MAY DEVELOP
WESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ATOKA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE... STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE PUSHMATAHA COUNTY STORMS
COULD ALSO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST ATOKA COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3450 9567 3450 9578 3442 9578 3441 9579
      3450 9592 3460 9584 3460 9576 3455 9566
      3451 9566

CJS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
732 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             7 ESE LANE              34.26N 95.87W
06/28/2011  E1.25 INCH       ATOKA              OK   PUBLIC

&&

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
735 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

OKZ052-290115-
BRYAN OK-
735 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BRYAN COUNTY.

AT 734 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES NORTHEAST
OF CADDO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS EXTENDED SOUTHEAST THROUGH CHOCTAW COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST
TEXAS...AND WERE DEVELOPING GRADUALLY FARTHER TO THE WEST.

MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED OR STORMS THREATEN YOU.

LAT...LON 3386 9580 3383 9585 3389 9594 3385 9596
      3387 9599 3384 9601 3383 9613 3416 9629
      3417 9597 3412 9593 3394 9593 3389 9584
      3388 9576 3386 9575

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
744 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

OKZ041>043-047-290130-
COAL OK-MURRAY OK-JOHNSTON OK-PONTOTOC OK-
744 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR COAL...JOHNSTON...MURRAY AND
PONTOTOC COUNTIES.

AT 740 PM CDT...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM OLNEY AND
COALGATE...SOUTHEAST THROUGH ATOKA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH
THE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH...THEY WERE DEVELOPING
SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST. BY 830 PM...THE STORMS MAY AFFECT
SULPHUR...FITTSTOWN...AND OTHER COMMUNITIES BETWEEN ADA AND
TISHOMINGO.

MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED OR STORMS THREATEN YOU.

LAT...LON 3451 9614 3443 9614 3443 9640 3428 9641
      3452 9714 3466 9692 3476 9631 3477 9609
      3452 9609

CMS