Severe Thunderstorm Warning 371, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG DRYLINE IN SCNTRL OK...EAST OF
TAF SITES. OTHER STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN NRN OK NEAR WEAK SFC
LOW AND THESE STORMS MAY AFFECT KPNC EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
OTRW...GENLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD. WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND LIFT NWD WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY
EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN IN SERN CO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011/

.DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD HEAT NEXT 2 DAYS. HEAT INDICES
CURRENTLY 105-113 ON AXIS SPS-OKC-SWO AREAS. PROJECTED MAX VALUES
SUNDAY ARE JUST BELOW 105 OVER MOST OF CENTRAL OK BUT AGAIN 105-110
SW OK AND OUR TX ZONES. WE WILL RIDE WITH THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO STRESS THE NEED FOR EXTRA
CAUTION IN THE HWO IN MOST AREAS WHERE VALUES WILL AT LEAST
APPROACH 105 THIS WEEKEND.

FIRE WATCH IS UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNING. WE HAVE ADDED A FEW
COUNTIES IN NW OK AND IN TX WHERE RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP
WELL BELOW 20 PCT.

PRECIP CHANCES LIKELY LIMITED TO E AND N PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
SFC CIRCULATION IS STATIONARY JUST W OF ENID. CHANCES N ARE WITH S
END OF E-MOVING MCS ACROSS KS. STORM-SCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN INITIATING STORMS FROM SCENTRAL/SE OK TOWARD ABILENS
LATE TODAY SO WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING IN OUR SE
ZONES. WILL ALSO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING NEAR DRYLINE ACROSS OUR W BASED ON LATEST NAM QPF.

POTENT SYSTEM FOR LATE JUNE EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. THIS
COULD BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY - THE MAIN QUESTION FOR OUR
AREA IS WHETHER THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME. AT THIS TIME WE THINK IT
WILL HOLD IN MOST AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON... THUS LOW POPS
MONDAY ARE CONFINED TO NCENTRAL OK. CHANCES INCREASE AS STORMS
BUILD S ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
AN END TO THE RECORD HEAT... AS HIGHS TUESDAY DROP BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

STANDARD INITIALIZATION FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75 102  75  98 /  20  10  10  10
HOBART OK         78 106  78 103 /  20  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  79 108  79 104 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           69 109  73 104 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     73 102  78  97 /  20  10  10  20
DURANT OK         77 102  75  99 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
OKZ004-005-009-     010-014-021-033-034-036.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ037>039-044-045.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
TXZ083>085-087-     088.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ084>090.

&&

23/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
405 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM WOODWARD TO ENID TO
STILLWATER.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM EARLY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM EARLY THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ORGANIZE INTO A STORM COMPLEX AS THEY
MOVE INTO KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ANY STORM
COMPLEXES THAT DO FORM OVER KANSAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXTEND
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN ONE FOURTH OF OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS MAY
LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE GREATEST THREATS FROM THESE STORMS
WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...HOT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT HAS OVERCOME
VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT...AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY JUN 19.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS
HEAT INDICES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A STORM SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR
STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE
WILL ALSO BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS EVERY DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOT WEATHER WILL PERSIST
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY...AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY.

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

OKZ050-182315-
LOVE OK-
550 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR LOVE COUNTY.

AT 551 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF
THACKERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
STAY ALERT AND LISTEN FOR WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 3373 9718 3380 9722 3383 9721 3386 9717
      3390 9720 3389 9723 3385 9726 3388 9730
      3382 9738 3382 9745 3385 9746 3398 9703
      3386 9699 3380 9709 3375 9708

WR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

OKZ008-182330-
KAY OK-
610 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR KAY COUNTY.

AT 611 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HARDY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3699 9674 3692 9674 3684 9674 3688 9696
      3700 9693 3700 9676

WR

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