Severe Thunderstorm Warning 312, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
637 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

.AVIATION... PREVAILING VFR. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL HAVE VFR
CIGS BUT VSBY AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE CONCERNS. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCAL HEAT BURSTS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. WINDS ALL COMING AROUND TO
SE SATURDAY AS REMNANT FRONT LIFTS N.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TO FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...NEAR
QUANAH...WILL PROVIDE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EXACTLY WHERE
STORMS FORM IS STILL UNCLEAR...WITH DIFFERENT OPINIONS FROM
DIFFERENT MODELS...AND STILL DIFFERENT LOCATIONS SUGGESTED BY THE
SYNOPTIC SITUATION. IN ANY CASE...THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE
FROM SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTH TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER.

WHATEVER STORMS FORM BY THIS EVENING WILL SHAPE THE OUTCOME OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
A SIMILAR SITUATION TO LAST NIGHT WILL EVOLVE...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN CONVECTION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AND POSSIBLE
REGENERATION AROUND SUNRISE.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON
SATURDAY...ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM ABOUT I-40 NORTH.
THIS FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH INTO KANSAS...TAKING
MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT...AND RETURNING CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO THE HEAT OF EARLIER THIS WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT WINDS SUFFICIENT FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
BE BELOW 20 PERCENT...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY.

THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE FORECAST TO ARRIVE ABOUT
MIDWEEK...BUT RAIN CHANCES WITH IT STILL APPEAR TO BE QUITE LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  93  70  96 /  40  30  10   0
HOBART OK         71  97  73 102 /  50  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  99  72 104 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           63  91  69 101 /  20  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  85  71  97 /  30  40  30  10
DURANT OK         75  96  71  97 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

03/24/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1145 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS IS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS TO DUNCAN AND SEMINOLE.
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 6 PM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
SOME DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES...ROOFTOPS...AND TENDER VEGETATION FROM
LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AN ENID TO WATONGA
AND VERNON...TEXAS LINE.  THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ISOLATED INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN INCREASE AS ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TEXAS.  SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH CLOUD BASES WILL QUICKLY PROMOTE OUTFLOW
DOMINATED STORMS AND STORM MERGERS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND HAIL
NEAR THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS.  LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO LIKELY.
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE MID
TO LATE EVENING BUT THE THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY JUN 11.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LIFT BACK TO NEAR OR
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 ON SATURDAY. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OF EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS...ALONG WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL
RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A CAP BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM EVENTS APPEAR POSSIBLE
LATER NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS TOWARD THE
U.S. BORDER WITH MEXICO...ALLOWING JET STREAM DISTURBANCES TO EMERGE
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WITH DRY AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGERS WILL
EXIST.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM SATURDAY.

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