Severe Thunderstorm Warning 294, NWS Norman, OK

357 
WWUS54 KOUN 092323
SVSOUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

OKC045-129-092345-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0294.000000T0000Z-110609T2345Z/
ROGER MILLS OK-ELLIS OK-
623 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS AND NORTHERN ROGER MILLS COUNTIES...

AT 622 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROLL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
ANOTHER STRENGTHENING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR REYDON...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ANGORA...CRAWFORD...DURHAM AND
  ROLL.

LAT...LON 3620 9964 3602 9944 3578 9938 3561 9989
      3578 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 232DEG 28KT 3583 9971

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL RIDGING HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS A FEW MINOR
WAVE MAKE THEIR WAY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTN. THIS
FRONT ALONG WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE WITH THE LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD THAT STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY COULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS NORTHERN INTO WESTERN OK... PER LATEST SHORT-RANGE HIGH-RES
MODELS.

THIS SFC FRONT ALONG WITH SOME MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY... MODELS SHOW SFC FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SO AGAIN HOT AND MAINLY DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER SFC FRONT TOWARD THE AREA AND PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  90  68  88 /  20  10  30  20
HOBART OK         73  97  70  92 /  30  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  99  75  97 /   0  10  20  10
GAGE OK           60  90  61  88 /  30  20  40  30
PONCA CITY OK     74  91  67  89 /  30  20  30  20
DURANT OK         73  91  74  90 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
310 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS
NORTHERN...WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND PART OF
NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... AND A SMALL PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PERRY... TO
KINGFISHER... TO WEATHERFORD... TO ALTUS... TO CROWELL TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN NOW AND 10 PM.

IMPACTS...
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO KANSAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH THE LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION... OR GAP BETWEEN
THE AIR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY ALSO
ALLOW FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STORMS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH THE STORMS.

FARTHER SOUTH... THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN
TEXAS NEAR A DRYLINE. THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S...
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THE STORMS FROM TEXAS WILL END THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING.
HOWEVER... THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUNE 10.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE VERY HIGH
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY... WITH THE BEST CHANCES
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY...MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM FRIDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
552 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

OKZ014-092315-
ROGER MILLS OK-
552 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ROGER MILLS COUNTY.

AT 552 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST
OF DEMPSEY...AND 5 MILES NORTH OF REYDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3588 10000 3590 9994 3593 9991 3596 9985
      3582 9970 3585 9940 3558 9952 3542 9994
      3543 10000