Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
823 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT... WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
APPROACH THE REGION AND LLJ STRENGTHENS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED ACTIVITY. SEVERE STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LARGE HAIL
CONCERN LATER TONIGHT. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNGHT
IN NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, BUT CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEHIND A DRYLINE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011/

DISCUSSION...
THE BEGINNING OF A ACTIVE PERIOD HAS BEGUN THIS AFTN AS STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTN NEAR THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OK/WESTERN NORTH
TX. EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS AND THEN POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... AND THEN PERHAPS
FARTHER EAST FRIDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY... HOWEVER A LOT OF WHAT
OCCURS TOMORROW WILL DEPEND ON LATE TONIGHT. A STRONGER PUSH FROM
ALOFT MAY PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... BUT
MAIN SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY EARLY/TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

A STRONGER SFC FRONT STILL APPEARS THAT IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME DRIER/COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  77  65  83 /  60  60  40   0
HOBART OK         66  85  61  92 /  60  40  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  84  67  96 /  60  50  30   0
GAGE OK           61  79  50  87 /  50  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  78  62  79 /  60  60  60  10
DURANT OK         70  78  67  83 /  60  60  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
645 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN... WESTERN...
CENTRAL... AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS THAT PART OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WEST
OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER TO ARDMORE.

TIMING...
UNTIL 3 AM.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING UPPER STORM WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE WIND NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL HELP SUSTAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
TENNIS BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 65 MPH. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT A SECOND WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS THE UPPER STORM PASSES ACROSS THIS PART OF THE
STATE. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MAY 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE LOCATED EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT WILL AGAIN BE LOCATED ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM FRIDAY.

SIX/CJS

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