Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Norman, OK

175 
WWUS54 KOUN 111117
SVSOUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
617 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

OKC009-129-111200-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0145.000000T0000Z-110511T1200Z/
ROGER MILLS OK-BECKHAM OK-
617 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BECKHAM AND SOUTHWESTERN ROGER MILLS COUNTIES...

AT 618 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF TEXOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BERLIN...DEMPSEY...ERICK...
  REYDON...SWEETWATER AND TEXOLA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 12.

LAT...LON 3512 9995 3517 10000 3533 10000 3562 10001
      3572 9999 3545 9947
TIME...MOT...LOC 1118Z 207DEG 24KT 3524 9993

$$

844 
WWUS54 KOUN 111126
SVSOUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

OKC009-129-111136-
/O.CAN.KOUN.SV.W.0145.000000T0000Z-110511T1200Z/
ROGER MILLS OK-BECKHAM OK-
626 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
NORTHWESTERN BECKHAM AND SOUTHWESTERN ROGER MILLS COUNTIES...

THE STORM HAS WEAKENED...BUT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL 
OCCUR AS THE STORM APPROACHES SWEETWATER.

LAT...LON 3512 9995 3517 10000 3533 10000 3562 10001
      3572 9999 3545 9947
TIME...MOT...LOC 1126Z 207DEG 24KT 3529 9992

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

.AVIATION...
STRATUS STREAMING NORTH THIS MORNING SHOULD OVERSPREAD ALL SITES
THIS MORNING... BUT WILL LIKELY MIX EAST OF WESTERN ONES AS DRYLINE
PUSHES EAST. WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP/THUNDER OUT OF TAFS UNTIL
LATE TODAY... EXCEPT FOR GAG/WWR AS CONVECTION CONT TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND PANHANDLE REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
SKIRT NW SITES THIS MORNING.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011/

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY COMPLEX WEATHER DAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. IMPRESSIVE TO SEE CONVECTION
WELL WEST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS LIFT FROM AN
INITIAL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON RICHER MOISTURE WHICH HAS
PUSHED WEST OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT WESTERN
SECTIONS THIS MORNING AS WAVE LIFTS NORTH INTO KANSAS LATER THIS
MORNING. SOME POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST LATER THIS MORNING... HOWEVER MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH THIS MORNING RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD STATUS DECK. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING... SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MINIMAL... BUT NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME ELEVATED SEVERE HAIL PRODUCING
STORMS.

BY LATER IN THE DAY EXPECT DRYLINE TO ADVANCE EAST INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. WIDESPREAD STRATUS
ACROSS WARM SECTOR WILL GRADUALLY ERODE ALLOWING WARMING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF DRYLINE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
WILL UPGRADE CURRENT WATCH TO A WARNING AS VERY DRY AIR THIS AFTN
WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES BETWEEN 10% AND 15% ALONG WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS.

MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF MAIN SYSTEM
AND SFC FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU... THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS ON THURSDAY... MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK. WILL ALSO INTRO
SOME LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OK THU AFTN. THIS WOULD OCCUR AS UPPER
LOW MEANDERS AROUND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PROXIMITY OF
COLD CORE OF SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME AFTN STORMS.

OTHERWISE... MUCH COOLER MORE SEASONAL WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM
THU INTO THE WEEKEND AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CLOSED UPPER
LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS COOL SFC HIGH TO
CONT TO PULL AIR SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA THROUGH THE PLAINS. SOME
HINT THAT BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH MAY TAKE SHAPE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A FEW DAYS OF HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES TO OCCUR JUST
BEYOND CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  60  83  54 /  40  30  10  10
HOBART OK         87  54  85  50 /  20  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  58  88  54 /  40  20  10  10
GAGE OK           83  49  78  49 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     81  60  80  52 /  40  40  20  20
DURANT OK         83  66  85  59 /  40  50  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

11/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
500 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
CITIES IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA INCLUDE ALVA...ENID...WATONGA...
WEATHERFORD...THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO...CHICKASHA...LAWTON...AND
DUNCAN.

THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS SURROUNDED BY A SLIGHT RISK...WHICH COVERS
ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF A BUFFALO...ELK CITY...ALTUS...VERNON...AND
SEYMOUR LINE.

TIMING...
ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE AFTER 3 PM AND BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING HAIL...WITH HAIL SIZES UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE
WEATHER EARLY IN THE DAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

MUCH MORE ORGANIZED AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN STORMS FORM ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF A DRYLINE. THIS STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THEN THE STORMS WILL
MOVE QUICKLY IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE WIND FIELDS IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME ENHANCED EARLY THIS EVENING...INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THIS ENHANCED RISK FOR STRONGER SUPERCELLS
AND TORNADOES WILL BE SEEN IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PROCEDURES AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION IN CASE SEVERE STORMS AFFECT YOUR LOCATION...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 12.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND AND VERY DRY AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE EXTREME WILDFIRE DANGERS OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. REFER TO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
551 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

OKZ021-111115-
BECKHAM OK-
551 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BECKHAM COUNTY.

AT 551 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF
TEXOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3542 10000 3537 9975 3503 9996 3503 10000