Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
301 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM
EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING AND VERY MUCH MOISTURE
MOVING NORTH OF THE FRONT WHICH LAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING ARE FAVORABLE FACTORS. LESS THUNDER WILL BE HEARD IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE RAIN TODAY WILL BE MODULATED
MOSTLY BY THE PATH OF THE UPPER STORM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS
WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER, THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL NOT
PASS ACROSS OKLAHOMA UNTIL LATER MONDAY, SO CHANCE FOR RAIN
INCREASE AGAIN THEN, HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WITH BROAD
MID-LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE, CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST AREAS
THROUGH MONDAY GIVING COOL CONDITIONS. AFTER A TRANSIENT AND WEAK
UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A FASTER AND WEAKER TROUGH IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE A WEAK FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA
LATE IN THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  40  59  37 /  50  20  30  10
HOBART OK         56  37  60  32 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  43  57  37 /  50  50  50  10
GAGE OK           54  31  64  31 /  30  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     56  34  64  36 /  40  20  10  10
DURANT OK         60  45  54  42 / 100  60  70  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

22/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
446 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
446 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES THE AREA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CROWELL AND
VERNON TEXAS TO DUNCAN AND ADA OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM EARLY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

IMPACTS...
MINOR DAMAGE FROM LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEEK AND RECEIVE REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL.

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION...STRETCHED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. ABOVE THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...
GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROVIDES INCREASING LIFT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND AND DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MIDDAY. THESE
STORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG JET STREAM WINDS. WITHIN
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE GREAT...BUT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS TO OCCUR...WITH THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES
IN DIAMETER...OR ABOUT PING PONG BALL SIZE...IS THE MAIN CONCERN.
THE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY
ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL...AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A JET STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...AND INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AFTER BEING CONSUMED BY THE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY MAY 2.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON MONDAY
OVER NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DRY WEATHER.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN BY FRIDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ON WEDNESDAY...DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE RISK
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

BURKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
241 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

TXZ087-010800-
KNOX TX-
241 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR KNOX COUNTY.

AT 242 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 17 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BENJAMIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3341 10000 3363 10000 3374 9983 3356 9968
      3352 9974 3340 9999

WR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
302 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

TXZ084-087-010830-
FOARD TX-KNOX TX-
302 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR FOARD AND KNOX COUNTIES.

AT 302 AM CDT...AN AREA OF DEVELOPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED FROM 8 MILES WEST OF TRUSCOTT TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BENJAMIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3340 10000 3348 10000 3379 9999 3410 9972
      3375 9951 3339 9994 3339 9998

WR

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
513 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

TXZ086-011030-
WICHITA TX-
513 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WICHITA COUNTY.

AT 513 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN WICHITA FALLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

LAT...LON 3403 9846 3385 9841 3387 9865 3392 9871

WR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
517 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

OKZ045-046-050-011100-
LOVE OK-JEFFERSON OK-CARTER OK-
517 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CARTER...JEFFERSON AND LOVE
COUNTIES.

AT 517 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 3
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PETERSBURG TO 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THACKERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

LAT...LON 3380 9722 3386 9717 3390 9720 3385 9726
      3388 9730 3382 9736 3382 9743 3390 9747
      3389 9757 3397 9761 3398 9768 3395 9772
      3397 9774 3422 9709 3396 9692 3393 9698
      3386 9699 3380 9709 3374 9708 3372 9715

WR