River Flood Warning 5, NWS Norman, OK

658 
WGUS84 KOUN 220113
FLSOUN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
813 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

OKC033-220913-
/O.EXT.KOUN.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110522T1920Z/
/RNDO2.1.ER.110521T1836Z.110522T0600Z.110522T1320Z.NO/
813 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
 
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DEEP RED CREEK NEAR RANDLETT. 
  
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 
  
* AT  7:45 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.1 FEET. 
  
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
  
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
  
* FORECAST...THE DEEP RED CREEK WILL CONTINUE RISING AND CREST NEAR 
  22.0 FEET EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE DEEP RED CREEK WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE MID SUNDAY MORNING. 
  
* IMPACT...AT 22 FEET...FLOOD DEPTHS UP TO 2 FEET OCCUR OVER 
  CROPLANDS...PASTURES...AND LOW-LYING LOCAL ROADS ALONG AND NEAR 
  THE CREEK.
  
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO THE PREVIOUS CREST STAGE OF
  22.0 FEET ON FEBRUARY 7 1987.

$$

636 
WGUS84 KOUN 221441
FLSOUN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
941 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

OKC033-222241-
/O.EXT.KOUN.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110523T0027Z/
/RNDO2.1.ER.110521T1836Z.110522T1045Z.110522T1827Z.NO/
941 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES...
 
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DEEP RED CREEK NEAR RANDLETT 
  
* UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 
  
* AT  8:45 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.9 FEET. 
  
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. 
  
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
  
* FORECAST...THE DEEP RED CREEK HAS CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO 
  FALL. THE DEEP RED CREEK WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SUNDAY 
  AFTERNOON.

$$

385 
WGUS84 KOUN 222114
FLSOUN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
414 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

OKC033-222144-
/O.CAN.KOUN.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110523T0027Z/
/RNDO2.1.ER.110521T1836Z.110522T1045Z.110522T1819Z.NO/
414 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE DEEP RED CREEK NEAR RANDLETT. 
  
* AT 4 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.8 FEET.
  
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
  
* THE DEEP RED CREEK CRESTED AT 22.13 FEET AT 6 AM SUNDAY...
  FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 1 PM SUNDAY...
  AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL.
  
  THE DEEP RED CREEK HAS RECEDED TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS 
  LOCATION. THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS LOCATION FOR 
  THIS EVENT.
  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

.AVIATION...
DRYLINE EXPECTED TO MIX EAST OF ALL SITES BY MID AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP IN EASTERN SITES BY SUNRISE AS MOIST AIR
SPREADS BACK WWD TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FOR
EARLY MORNING THEN SCATTERING OUT AGAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011/

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO DEWPOINTS BASED ON TRENDS THIS
MORNING AND EXPECTED RETREAT OF MOISTURE BACK TO TOWARD THE WEST
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... NO CHANGES FOR TODAY. STILL EXPECT TO
SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS TO THE
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011/

AVIATION...
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE TROUBLESOME THIS MORNING. IR LOOP
CURRENTLY SHOWS STEADY WESTWARD PROGRESS IN CENTRAL OK AND MUCH
SLOWER WESTWARD PROGRESS IN N TX... SO KOKC AND KOUN LIKELY TO
REMAIN IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHILE STRATUS PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH
KSPS AT ALL. MEANWHILE KPNC AND KLAW LIKELY TO BE IN AND OUT OF
IT. EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO HALT AND THEN REVERSE BY
LATE MORNING AS THE VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BEGINS TO MIX OUT.
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR BY MIDDAY. DRYLINE WILL END UP E
OF ALL SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY RETREAT W AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
CENTRAL OK AND PROBABLY KLAW/KSPS TOWARD 12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011/

DISCUSSION...
WATCHING FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL OK E OF THE
DRYLINE WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AT OR NEAR ZERO. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM BECOMING A
WIDESPREAD HAZARD... BUT A FEW SPOTS HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE AT
TIMES. WE PROBABLY CAN HANDLE THIS WITH NOWCASTS AND THE HWO...
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE WE WILL NEED TO POST AN ADVISORY FOR
SOME AREAS BEFORE DAYBREAK.

NEXT ISSUE IS SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. DRYLINE SHOULD
MIX E TO NEAR OR E OF I-35 BY MID AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE LIKELY
OVERDOING THE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S OVER E OK THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE WEAKENING MCS OVER TX/LA DOING WHAT IT CAN TO
INTERCEPT THE RETURN OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. BUT MID-UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS STILL WILL YIELD SBCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG... THUS
SUPPORTING A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS E OF I-35 BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY END UP STRONGER THAN FRIDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE VEERED. THERE IS AN APPARENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW... SEEN ON SATELLITE OVER
CO/NM EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY BE THE INSTIGATOR OF
STORM INITIATION AS IT REACHES THE DRYLINE IN E OK LATE TODAY.
GREATER SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE E OF OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

DRYLINE WILL RETREAT W/NW AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE NE-SW FROM NCENTRAL OK INTO OUR TX ZONES
BY SUNDAY. WE THEN WILL BE SET UP FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... MAINLY S AND
E PARTS OF THE AREA PER SWODY2.

THE PLOT THICKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN EXTENSIVE NEGATIVELY-
TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM THE NE PACIFIC SE-WARD ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN W INTO AZ/NM. THIS IS AN OMINOUS LONGWAVE
PATTERN FOR THE S PLAINS IN LATE SPRING. MODEL CONSENSUS APPEARS
TO SUPPORT ONE SIZEABLE PIECE EJECTING FROM THE SW TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL/S PLAINS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN LARGER PIECE TUESDAY.
EITHER OR BOTH DAYS COULD FEATURE ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IN AND AROUND OK/TX. BUT THE STANDARD DISCLAIMER APPLIES -
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ON ANY GIVEN DAY WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
EVOLUTION OF STORMS ON SUBSEQUENT DAYS IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. WE
WILL MAINTAIN 30-50 PCT POPS IN MOST PERIODS FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. POPS THEN
ARE TAPERED OFF GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN IT APPEARS COOLER/DRIER
AIR WILL FINALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

MODEL VARIANCE THEN INCREASES SO THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK
IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE ONE. WE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST THU-
FRIDAY... THINKING EITHER THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF
US /ECMWF/ OR THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH /GFS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  86  65  89  69 /  10  10  10  30
HOBART OK         89  61  92  68 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  66  93  68 /   0  10  20  30
GAGE OK           89  56  93  63 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     86  64  88  70 /  20  10  10  30
DURANT OK         87  72  86  70 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

30/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1150 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 PM
AND 9 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD
THE PLAINS TODAY. MEANWHILE... A DRYLINE LOCATED OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AT MIDDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AND RICHER MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS BEGINS TO
MOVE BACK INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF HAIL LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS... THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH... AND AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF TORNADOES. THE
STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 22.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...40 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND A
PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY... AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
SUNDAY.