Red Flag Warning 51, NWS Norman, OK

Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Carter County, OK, Coal County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, Murray County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Clay County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Knox County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

054 
WWUS84 KOUN 132012
RFWOUN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
312 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2011

OKZ037-039-041>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-140000-
/O.CON.KOUN.FW.W.0051.000000T0000Z-110914T0000Z/
TILLMAN-STEPHENS-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-
JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
312 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS...

* WIND...18 TO 24 MPH

* HUMIDITY...10 TO 17 PERCENT

* TEMPERATURE...103 TO 108

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FIRES MAY START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. REPORT SMOKE OR FIRE
TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

$$

CMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
658 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2011

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2011/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP FARTHER WEST WITH TIME...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 8H TEMPS NEAR
28C SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD HEAT ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL
BE ELEVATED TODAY BUT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER
TODAY THAN ON MONDAY. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOME
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.

A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES MOVES
EAST...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS....WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND
RELATIVELY COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MID SEPTEMBER. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 60S WITH SOME 70S
POSSIBLE SOUTH.

SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP AT LEAST
OF CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST.

A STRONGER TROUGH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 101  68  86  57 /  10  30  30  60
HOBART OK        102  67  88  55 /   0  20  40  70
WICHITA FALLS TX 106  71  95  60 /   0  20  20  50
GAGE OK           94  61  79  52 /  10  30  60  70
PONCA CITY OK     96  63  83  51 /  10  30  40  70
DURANT OK        105  70  96  62 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

01/01/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
500 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY TONGIHT.
HOWEVER...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TODAY AND THROUGH SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY THIS EVENING. WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NORTH OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT.
SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY AS INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER WEAK.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY SEP 14.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...40 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WILL RAISE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED...AND THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY STORMS IS LIKELY TO
BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY