Storm Watch 2, NWS New York, NY

185 
WHUS71 KOKX 250921
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT...

ANZ350-353-355-252230-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-110225T1100Z/
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.W.0012.110225T0921Z-110225T2300Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.A.0002.110225T2300Z-110226T1100Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
421 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING. A
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.

* LOCATION...COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

* WINDS...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT...WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT
  WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT BY LATE MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO THE
  SOUTHWEST AT 30 TO 40 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 KT BY
  LATE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
  AND DECREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 KT.
  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE GUSTS TO 50 KT TO BE MORE
  FREQUENT TONIGHT. ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE 50 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

* SEAS/WAVES...2 TO 4 FT SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BUILD TO 7
  TO 16 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHEST EAST OF MORICHES INLET.
  SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-252230-
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.W.0012.110225T0921Z-110225T2300Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.A.0002.110225T2300Z-110226T1100Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
421 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING. A
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. 

* LOCATION...LONG ISLAND SOUND...NEW YORK HARBOR...AND THE BAYS OF
  LONG ISLAND.

* WINDS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT EARLY THIS
  MORNING...BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 40 TO 45 KT BY LATE MORNING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
  INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 KT BY
  LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST...THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT
  AT 20 TO 30 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 KT. THERE IS THE
  POTENTIAL FOR THE GUSTS TO 50 KT TO BE MORE FREQUENT TONIGHT.
  ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE 50 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
  THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...NEW YORK HARBOR...AND EASTERN SOUND.

* SEAS/WAVES...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FT ON THE SOUND BY THIS
  AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVES WILL OCCUR THIS
  AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

MALOIT

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NEWYORKCITY

136 
WHUS71 KOKX 251437
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
937 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT...

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-260345-
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110226T1100Z/
/O.CAN.KOKX.SR.A.0002.110225T2300Z-110226T1100Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
937 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...
...STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS CANCELLED THE STORM
WATCH. THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY.


* LOCATION...LONG ISLAND SOUND...NEW YORK HARBOR...AND THE BAYS 
  OF LONG ISLAND. 

* WINDS...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 45 KT
  WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KT WITH
  OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO
  THE WEST...THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT AT 20 TO 30 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
  GUSTS UP TO 50 KT. 

* SEAS/WAVES...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 16 FT OVER THE OCEAN
  WATERS...AND 3 TO 6 FT ON THE SOUND BY THIS AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVES WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NEWYORKCITY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1258 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A POTENT
LOW TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN
TO OUR WEST AND NORTH FRIDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE TRI-STATE LATE FRIDAY. A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS THEN
IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THESE IMPACTING THE TRI-STATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN SPOTS...MOST
NOTABLY OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR.
ALSO...MIXED LAYER VERY SHALLOW TODAY...AND WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR
HIGHS TO TOP OUT AROUND 40.

MORE IMPORTANTLY...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF NE
NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN CT FOR FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF A FROZEN GROUND...SNOW
PACK...AND POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST
OF THE AREA...WITH A WSW FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE DAY. IN RESPONSE TO MODERATE
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THERE IS MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE W 1/2 OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
TRACK TO THE W AND N OF THE TRI-STATE FRIDAY.

THIS STORM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WITH ITS SUPPORTING LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH/WEAKENING CUTOFF
JUST TO THE WEST - PER LATEST SURFACE AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS.
MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO SW
PA/SE OHIO BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH ITS UPPER SUPPORT JUST TO THE WEST.

THE GFS THEN BECOMES A FAST OUTLIER WITH THE LOW AND LOW-MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC-GLOBAL THE SLOWEST...AND THE 00Z
NAM/21Z SREF/12Z ECMWF CLUSTERED FAIRLY TIGHTLY IN BETWEEN. WENT
WITH THIS COMPROMISE SOLUTION FOR NOW FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC
LIFT FROM SW TO NE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH A STEADIER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS
INTERIOR ZONES...WITH MAYBE SOME SLEET MIXED IN AT THE
START...WITH MAINLY RAIN ACROSS NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT
(ONCE AGAIN MAYBE SOME SLEET BRIEFLY AT THE ONSET).

DUE TO THE LARGE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREAD AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION...EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ORANGE/PUTNAM/NORTHERN FAIRFIELD/NORTHERN NEW HAVEN COUNTY TO FALL
AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...WITH FREEZING RAIN
DEVELOPING...AS OTHER AREAS WORK ON CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. THE
FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS
THESE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN DEEPER VALLEYS...BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY
WARM AIR WORKS IN ALOFT...AND HOW LONG SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING...SO HAVE HELD OF ON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
NOW. FOR NOW SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WITH A
GLAZE TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF ICE BEFORE CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN.

THE RAIN BECOMES HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH OUT FRIDAY MORNING...AND
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LOW TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER IN ALL ZONES (SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND 0).
THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FROM W TO E AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES. SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR DETAILS ON QPF AMOUNTS AND FLOOD THREAT.

THE OTHER THREAT WITH THIS STORM IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS PROGGED TO 45 TO 60 KT - HIGHEST ACROSS S/E
EASTERN PORTIONS...AND WINDS FROM 950-850 HPA PROGGED TO BETWEEN
70-85 KT (WEAKEST WINDS FROM 925 HPA AND BELOW ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND S CT)...COUPLED WITH THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FROM 15Z FRIDAY-3Z SATURDAY FOR ALL BUT THE AREAS WITH THE
WEAKER WINDS FROM 925 HPA AND BELOW - AS CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS THERE
TO AT LEAST 58 MPH IS NOT QUITE AT 50 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.

ONLY NEED ABOUT 65 PERCENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND TO MIX DOWN TO
HIT HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WITH GUSTS...AND WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION LIKELY...FEEL A HIGH WIND WATCH IS THE BEST WAY TO
ADDRESS THIS THREAT AT THIS TIME. BASICALLY CONVECTION WILL BE TO
SCATTERED AND SHALLOW IN NATURE TO ADEQUATELY HANDLE AS SEVERE
WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR ANY NARROW CONVECTIVE BAND WHICH MAY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE THIS LIKELY WILL BE WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR...TOO MUCH OF A THREAT BEFORE THIS TO HANDLE
WITH CONVECTIVE WARNINGS AS NOTED ABOVE.

THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ONCE AGAIN WINDS 950-925 NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH OVER AREAS NOT IN THE WATCH (THOUGH STRONGER THAN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT)...TO WARRANT PUTTING THE WATCH OVER THE ENTIRE CWA
AT THIS TIME. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS COULD DO
THIS.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BRINGS THE THREAT OF PATCHY
FOG (FREEZING FOG FOR AREAS WITH FZRA IN THE FORECAST) LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM...USED COOLER OF MAV/MET/NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT/HOURLY
TEMPERATURES...AS THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL DAMMING FROM THE
DEPARTING HIGH...AS EVIDENCED BY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT NOT
LIFTING THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...WITH SLOWER TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...OPTED FOR
WARMER MET GUIDANCE...TEMPERED SOMEWHAT NEAR THE COAST WITH NAM
W-METER TEMPERATURES...THOUGH CONVECTION EVEN THERE COULD MIX DOWN
ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT TO PUSH TEMPERATURES THERE INTO THE 50S AS
WELL.

FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...BLENDED MAV/MET GUIDANCE...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WELL MIXED AND GFS TOO FAST IN BRINGING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND
SYSTEM...DID NOT WANT TO GO AS COLD AS MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AT
THIS TIME...THOUGH IT HAS PERFORMED BETTER IN THESE SORT OF
SITUATIONS RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES FOR FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONABLE DURING THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A MODIFIED POLAR HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND MOVES E SATURDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE S AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SAT NIGHT TO THE ENTIRE
AREA...GRADUALLY CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS
ON SUN BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH STILL HAVE
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS INTERIOR.

A BRIEF RESPITE LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THEN MODELS
SIGNALING A POTENT CLOSED LOW EJECTING FROM THE SW US SUN NIGHT/MON
TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...PHASING WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SOMEWHERE OVER THE NE 1/3RD OF THE US. THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THIS INTERACTION IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR ANOTHER STRONG INLAND RUNNING STORM TO IMPACT THE AREAS
WITH HEAVY PRECIP AND STRONG WINDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...BUT WITH AN INLAND
TRACK...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING MAINLY RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE WINTRY
MIX INLAND TO START. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE CLIPPER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH S-SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS
BECOME 5 KT OR LESS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING LOW PRES ON
FRI. CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR THIS EVENING...THEN QUICKLY TO IFR
AROUND MIDNIGHT. PTYPE WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF RAIN/SNOW IS LIKELY AT KSWF FROM AROUND 02Z-05Z.

IFR-VLIFR IN HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FRI MORNING THROUGH LATE FRI
AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN/FOG...THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG
WINDS. WITH A 60-80 KT LLJ...WILL EXPECT LLWS ISSUES STARTING
AROUND 11Z AT 2000 FT AT 50 KT...INCREASING TO 60-70 KT LATE FRI
MORNING.

SFC WINDS TO BE TRICKY. ALTHOUGH SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 20-30 KT WITH 30-35 KT GUSTS IN THE MORNING...THAT IS ALL
DEPENDENT ON MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG INVERSION THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THAT COULD PREVENT THOSE WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN TO THE SFC UNTIL COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY...GENERALLY FOR THE 30 HR TAFS AT THIS
TIME...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT WITH 35-40 KT GUSTS.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

FRI AFTERNOON...IFR TO VLIFR IN HEAVY RAIN/FOG. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE. STRONG SW WINDS VEERING TO THE NW. LLWS LIKELY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
FRI NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS
EXPECTED.
SAT...VFR.
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN POSSIBLE.
MON...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WITH STRONG S WINDS POSSIBLE.
TUE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. GUSTY NW WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE S OF
THE WATERS.

WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING GUSTS/SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS AWAY FROM THE COAST (BASICALLY TO AREAS S OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT/COASTAL FRONT).

WITH WINDS FROM 950-850 HPA INCREASING TO 70-85 KT BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...ONLY NEED TO MIX DOWN HALF OF THIS FOR GALE GUSTS...THUS
HAVE EXPANDED THE GALE WATCH TO ALL WATERS. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT SO HAVE EXTENDED IT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BEHIND
THE FRONT...HAVE 950 WINDS TO 35-40 KT WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AFTER MIDNIGHT SUPPORTING THIS EXTENSION IN TIME.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
ZONES...FRIDAY...AND MENTION THIS IN THE CWF AND HWO...BUT NOT AT
50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL TO ISSUE A STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO 7 TO 14
FT...HIGHEST EAST OF MORICHES INLET...AND ON THE SOUND TO 3 TO 7
FT...HIGHEST CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUND...FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SUB SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS SE OF THE WATERS AND MOVES EAST.

THEN STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH SCA SEAS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN.

THEN STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT EVOLUTION OF AN INLAND RUNNING
STORM...BUT POTENTIAL FOR GALES EXISTS ON ALL WATERS LATE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF NE NJ...THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN CT FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THIS IS DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF A FROZEN GROUND...SNOW PACK...AND POTENTIAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EXPERIENCING
ISOLATED CONVECTION. T

THOSE AREAS OUTSIDE THE WATCH...WOULD EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO
BE MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS RECEIVING STRONGER CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY OVER A LONG DURATION. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER IS
RELATIVELY LOW...SO HAVE NOT ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE
AREAS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL LIKELY BE HIGH SURF AND BEACH EROSION AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES.

IN TERMS OF COASTAL FLOODING...TIDAL DEPARTURES BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.5
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A GALE FORCE S/SW FLOW IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE FLOW TO
PRODUCING HIGH TIDAL DEPARTURES.

AT THIS POINT THE TIDAL DEPARTURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE GREAT ENOUGH
FOR ANY MAJOR ISSUES. THE MORE VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE BAYS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED DUE TO LACK OF TIDAL DRAINAGE
AND ANY WAVE ACTION ON TOP OF SURGE. SPECIFICALLY...AN AREA SUCH AS
COASTAL LINDENHURST CAN SEE EXACERBATION OF ANY TIDAL SURGE DURING
HEAVY RAIN EVENTS DUE TO FRESHWATER DRAINAGE FROM NUMEROUS
CREEKS...SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. ANOTHER AREA
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR COMBINED SURGE/WAVE ACTION ISSUES
WILL BE THE THE SOUTH COAST OF CONNECTICUT...PARTICULARLY SE CONN
SHORELINE WITH THE SSW WIND TRAJECTORY DEVELOPING SOLID WAVE ACTION
ON TOP OF ANY SURGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUES DUE TO STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     CTZ008>012.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>071.
NJ...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/NV
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011

NJZ006-NYZ072-075-078>081-176>179-251100-
HUDSON-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
424 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY MORNING
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS RECEIVING
STRONGER CONVECTION. THE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS RELATIVELY LOW. SHOULD CONFIDENCE LEVELS INCREASE...A
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED.

THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN BEACH EROSION AT
SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ067>071-251100-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
424 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   HIGH WIND WATCH.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY MORNING
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF CURRENT SNOW PACK...FROZEN GROUND AND HIGH RAINFALL
RATES MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM...URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND
BASEMENT FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NYZ073-074-251100-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
424 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY MORNING
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS RECEIVING
STRONGER CONVECTION. THE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS RELATIVELY LOW. SHOULD CONFIDENCE LEVELS INCREASE...A
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-251100-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
424 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY...
...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.
   STORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO STORM FORCE
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. THERE IS A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO STORM FORCE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.