Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
156 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY. THIS FRONT MOVES
WELL TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
SLOWLY TRACK TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DEEPENING
OVER THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...THE MAIN MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDED FROM THE
NY/MA STATE BORDERS SE ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND THEN OFFSHORE.
NARROW BANDS OF HVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONT TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THIS MOISTURE BELT AND MV NNW GUIDED BY THE NEGATIVELY
TITLED UPSTREAM TROUGH.

ACROSS THE NYC METRO AREA N AND W...THE LATEST LOOP OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED A MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT ADVECTING NE ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH HAS TEMPORARILY ACCOUNTED FOR LIGHTER SHOWERS.

FURTHER WEST...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR ELMIRA IN WESTERN
NY STATE SSE ACROSS CENTRAL PA...JUST E OF STATE COLLEGE KUNV THEN
ACROSS CENTRAL MD. BANDS OF HVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONT TO MARK THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS FRONT FOLLOWED BY A LARGER CLUSTER OF MAINLY
MODERATE TO HVY SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT IS THIS AREA THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY PIVOT NE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS REMAIN UNTIL THIS FRONT MOVES NE OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY/THIS
EVENING WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
WILL HAVE ANY TSTM ACTIVITY PUSHING TO THE NE...WITH MAINLY WIDELY
SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
INTERIOR ZONES.

MAIN STORY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA. WINDS GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IMMEDIATELY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING. WOULD EXPECT GUSTS TO DIE OFF A BIT OVER
NIGHT THOUGH WITH REDUCED MIXING.

MAINLY DRY...BUT BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH LIKELY.
WINDS APPEAR TO FALL JUST SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL BE CLOSE. WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WOULD
EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU...AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...PARTICULARLY NW OF NYC. TEMPS LIKELY
ONLY MAXING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 60S COAST WITH
CANADIAN AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER SAT NGT INTO SUN WITH LOW RH AND A BREEZE. FRONT TRACKS
THRU SUN NGT INTO MON. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE SO SCT SHRA FCST. SWD
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW HOWEVER AS IT ALIGNS WITH THE UPR
LVL FLOW. AFTER ABOUT 12 HRS OF FAIR WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT...WAA
STARTS AS H5 TROF DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST. A RAPID RISE IN HUMIDITY
CAN BE EXPECTED. FORCING WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE TROF TO THE W.
ALTHOUGH SOME RUNS SUGGEST AN ISOLD SHRA...FCST KEPT DRY WITH A
STABLE ONSHORE FLOW.

DEEP LOW PRES THEN BRINGS WIND AND RAIN TO THE CWA MID WEEK. EXACT
TIMING AND INTENSITY STILL NOT LOCKED IN...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS
HITTING ON WED INTO EARLY THU. INTENSITY WILL DETERMINE MAX WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM THU. ATTM ADVISORY LVL WINDS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW DROPS INTO THE 970S IN CANADA AS
SOME OF THE DATA SUGGESTS. A ROUND OF HVY RAIN BUT PCPN LIKELY TO BE
CUT OFF IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LOW DUE TO THE DRY SLOT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT TO MVFR...AND IN SOME CASES...
VFR. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR UNTIL AFTER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PASSES THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT CIGS TO FLUCTUATE FROM IFR TO MVFR
WITH OCNL BREAKS OF VFR.

KJFK/KLGA SHOULD CONTINUE WITH IFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE FORMING
ACROSS WESTERN PA...WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND. WILL CARRY TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA FROM AROUND
20-23Z FOR WESTERN TERMINALS. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO PASS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE KNYC TERMINALS...BUT CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KISP. WILL CARRY CB
GROUPS FOR TERMINALS EAST OF THAT LINE...AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED IN THAT AREA.

SKIES CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
WITH PASSAGE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

WINDS THEN INCREASE SAT MORNING TO 20-30 KT WITH 30-35 KT GUSTS.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CIGS/VSBYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BANDS OF CONVECTION LIKELY FROM 20-22Z. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING. AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CIGS/VSBYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BANDS OF CONVECTION LIKELY FROM 20-22Z. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING. AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CIGS/VSBYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BANDS OF CONVECTION LIKELY FROM 20-22Z. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING. AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CIGS/VSBYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BANDS OF CONVECTION LIKELY FROM 20-22Z. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING. AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CIGS/VSBYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BANDS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM 21-22Z. AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CIGS/VSBYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE FROM 21-23Z. AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SAT...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.
SAT NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
SUN...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS SAT.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA.
MON...VFR.
TUE...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS/RAIN DEVELOPS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
WED...SUB-VFR IN RAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA SEAS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE OCEAN WATERS IN RESPONSE TO A
PERSISTENT S/SE FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SW/W LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING
AND THEN INCREASE TO AT LEAST SCA LEVELS ACROSS ALL WATERS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MODERATE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED STARTING THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR
GALE GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN LI SOUND AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS. OCEAN SEAS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE DUE TO THE COMBINED SOUTHERLY
SWELLS AND STRONG WINDS...WHILE SEAS ON THE SOUND WILL LIKELY
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT.

SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS SAT NGT. GALES POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AND
PERHAPS ERN ZONES. WINDS BECOME MARGINAL ON THE PROTECTED WATERS
SUN. SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN.

ENHANCEMENT OF THE WINDS WITH ANOTHER FRONT SUN NGT. POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS WILL THEN SLOWLY
IMPROVE THRU THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. DEEP LOW PRES WILL THEN
IMPACTS THE WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GALES POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING 3/4 TO 1
3/4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. AREAS RECEIVING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING...WITH A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN ANY TRAINING
CELLS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED TO
KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS DURING THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING ACROSS NY HARBOR AND LI SOUND.
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO TOUCH MINOR BENCHMARKS ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY...SO WILL ISSUE A SHORT
FUSE STATEMENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
216 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-151000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
216 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS AND
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-151000-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
216 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS AND
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ350-353-355-151000-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
216 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS AND
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
237 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

NJZ004-006-104>108-NYZ074-141930-
EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN
UNION-HUDSON-RICHMOND (STATEN IS.)-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-
237 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ESSEX...HUDSON...PASSAIC...
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...SOUTHERN BERGEN AND UNION COUNTIES...

AT 229 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MADISON PARK...OR NEAR SAYREVILLE...AND
MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...HEAVY
RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO HALF AN INCH AN HOUR...IS
OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. THIS COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 4054 7426 4056 7422 4060 7422 4059 7429
      4061 7431 4060 7442 4072 7440 4075 7437
      4080 7437 4082 7434 4086 7433 4087 7434
      4090 7434 4091 7432 4085 7402 4050 7419
      4049 7425

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