Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
740 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND MOVES OFFSHORE TOMORROW NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS MADE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE. LOOKS AS THOUGH IT'S STILL WELL BACK BETWEEN BGM AND
MSV.

WILL DROP THE REST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 687 AT THE TOP OF
THE HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOME DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED...BUT WITH UNFAVORABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS. MAV/NAM MOS FOR HIGHS WERE SIMILAR AND WERE
USED CONSIDERING 850MB TEMP FORECAST.

DIURNAL CU DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE FILTERING IN WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. WE BEGIN WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AS
SUCH...CONCERN IS FOR NOCTURNAL MCS POTENTIAL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
09Z SREF HAS WEAK HINTS OF THIS. 12Z NAM...GEM AND LAST TWO ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC RUNS SUPPORT THIS WHILE GFS RUN DOES NOT. AT THIS TIME
WILL RUN WITH A 30 POP.

THE UNCERTAINTY OF MCS ACTIVITY MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FCST FOR
FRIDAY MORE UNCERTAIN. BASED ON INCREASE EXPECTATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND INCREASING PCPN POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY...WILL TEND FCST TEMPS DOWN
TOWARDS LATEST MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 90S...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
LOOKING HIGH. STILL HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 IN THE NY/NJ
METRO WITH DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND 70. IT APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAT
ANY HEAT WARNINGS WOULD BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S MAKE IT AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE. KEEP PCPN TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION PER BASIC AGREEMENT OF GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC RUNS.

TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXTREMELY
UNCERTAIN. HAVE A CHC POP INLAND FOR TUESDAY AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

POSSIBLE TSTMS AFFECTING NYC METRO THIS EVENING.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR...WITH PERHAPS PATCHY MVFR FOG AND STRATUS
OUTSIDE NYC TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AS THE
FRONT NEARS THIS EVENING...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

VFR WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE
MORNING...WITH WINDS MAINLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE.

WINDS BACK A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD LIGHTEN TO 10
KTS OR LESS.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR A TSTM EARLY.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT OF 310...WITH SOME MORNING GUSTS.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR A TSTM EARLY.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT OF 310...WITH SOME MORNING GUSTS.
SEA BREEZE UNLIKELY LATE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR A TSTM EARLY.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT OF 310...WITH SOME MORNING GUSTS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR A TSTM EARLY.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT OF 310...WITH SOME MORNING GUSTS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR A TSTM EARLY.
NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORNING GUSTS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR A TSTM EARLY.
NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORNING GUSTS. SEA BREEZE UNLIKELY LATE.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...VFR.

THU NIGHT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
A WARM FRONT.

FRI...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE SUB VFR WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT LATE.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A FAIRLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS MAY
BRIEFLY APPROACH 25 KT THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS.
SOME CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS/WAVES.

WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONVECTION INTO TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A BASIN AVERAGE OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF RAINFALL...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL THEN BE LATE THU THROUGH LATE
FRI AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/JST
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JST
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JST
HYDROLOGY...JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
251 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-270300-
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
251 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ005>012-NYZ067>071-270300-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
251 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 687 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-270300-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
251 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
703 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

NJZ002-103-NYZ067-069-270000-
ORANGE-ROCKLAND-WESTERN BERGEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-
703 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN
PASSAIC...WESTERN ROCKLAND AND SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTIES...

AT 701 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PORT JERVIS TO 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MILFORD PENNSYLVANIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR UNIONVILLE BY 720 PM.
  NEAR FLORIDA BY 735 PM.
  5 MILES SOUTH OF CHESTER BY 740 PM.
  NEAR MONROE BY 745 PM.
  NEAR HARRIMAN BY 750 PM.
  NEAR RINGWOOD BY 755 PM.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4143 7476 4134 7469 4119 7438 4108 7451
      4104 7450 4101 7427 4098 7423 4098 7416
      4096 7414 4089 7413 4089 7412 4091 7410
      4094 7407 4106 7406 4116 7391 4124 7397
      4129 7395 4131 7397 4143 7475

GOODMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
712 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 5 WNW FISHERS ISLAND    41.31N 72.08W
07/26/2011  M39.00 MPH       ANZ330             CT   MESONET

            34 KTS RECORDED AT NEW LONDON LEDGE

&&

DS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
759 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND SHINNECOCK HILLS        40.90N  72.46W
07/26/2011  M45 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   MESONET

            39 KTS

&&

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
804 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

CTZ005-009-010-270045-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
804 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FAIRFIELD AND SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN
COUNTIES...

AT 802 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GEORGETOWN...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEW
CANAAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR TRUMBULL BY 815 PM.
  NEAR BRIDGEPORT BY 820 PM.
  NEAR STRATFORD BY 825 PM.
  NEAR MILFORD BY 830 PM.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4126 7295 4120 7301 4120 7304 4118 7305
      4119 7307 4117 7310 4115 7310 4114 7315
      4117 7317 4111 7325 4119 7352 4121 7348
      4123 7350 4135 7345

GOODMAN