River Flood Warning 10, NWS New York, NY

270 
WGUS41 KOKX 110720
FLWOKX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
220 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A FLOOD 
WARNING FOR THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI...

BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
THEN TAPER OFF AFTER DAYBREAK. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL
RESULT IN MAJOR FLOODING OF THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI. THE
RIVER SHOULD CREST LATER THIS MORNING...AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER 
RADIO.

&&

NJC003-111920-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FL.W.0010.110311T0716Z-110312T0700Z/
/LODN4.3.ER.110311T0620Z.110311T1200Z.110311T1900Z.NO/
220 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE 
FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
* AT 1AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS...6.2 FEET
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET 
* AT 8.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS ON MAIN STREET IN LODI.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 8.4 FEET ON DEC 21 1973.

$$

501 
WGUS81 KOKX 111209
FLSOKX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
709 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY CONTINUES THE FLOOD 
WARNING FOR THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI...

THE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS RESULTED IN MAJOR FLOODING OF
THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI. THE RIVER SHOULD CREST LATER THIS
MORNING...AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER 
RADIO.

&&

NJC003-120009-
/O.CON.KOKX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110312T0700Z/
/LODN4.3.ER.110311T0620Z.110311T1146Z.110311T1900Z.NO/
709 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
* AT 6AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.2 FEET
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE 
  AFTERNOON.
* AT 8.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS ON MAIN STREET IN LODI.

$$

875 
WGUS81 KOKX 111432
FLSOKX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
932 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY CONTINUES THE FLOOD 
WARNING FOR THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI...

HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED EAST FROM THE WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS RESULTED IN MAJOR FLOODING OF
THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI. THE RIVER SHOULD CREST LATER THIS
MORNING...AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER 
RADIO.

&&

NJC003-120232-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110312T1001Z/
/LODN4.3.ER.110311T0620Z.110311T1630Z.110311T2201Z.NO/
932 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
* AT 08AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.7 FEET
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET
* AT 8.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS ON MAIN STREET IN LODI.


&&
                   FLD        OBSERVED     FORECAST
 LOCATION          STG          STG        DAY TIME       CREST

SADDLE RIVER
  LODI             6.0          8.71       FRI 9 AM     8.9 FRI 11 AM

$$

690 
WGUS81 KOKX 111459
FLSOKX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY CONTINUES THE FLOOD 
WARNING FOR THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI...

HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED EAST FROM THE WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS RESULTED IN MAJOR FLOODING OF
THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI. THE RIVER SHOULD CREST LATER THIS
MORNING...AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER 
RADIO.

&&

NJC003-120259-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110312T1102Z/
/LODN4.3.ER.110311T0620Z.110311T1630Z.110311T2302Z.NO/
959 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING
* AT 09AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.0 FEET
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET
* AT 8.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS ON MAIN STREET IN LODI.

&&
                   FLD        OBSERVED     FORECAST
 LOCATION          STG          STG        DAY TIME       CREST

SADDLE RIVER
  LODI             6.0          9.00       FRI 10 AM    9.3 FRI 11 AM

$$

402 
WGUS81 KOKX 111657
FLSOKX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1156 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY CONTINUES THE FLOOD 
WARNING FOR THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI...

MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI. THE RIVER
SHOULD CREST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
TONIGHT.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER 
RADIO.


&&

NJC003-120456-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110312T1451Z/
/LODN4.3.ER.110311T0620Z.110311T1700Z.110312T0251Z.NO/
1156 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING
* AT 11AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.4 FEET
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 9.5 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.
* AT 8.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS ON MAIN STREET IN LODI.
 

&&
                   FLD        OBSERVED     FORECAST
 LOCATION          STG          STG        DAY TIME       CREST

SADDLE RIVER
  LODI             6.0         9.43       FRI 11 AM    9.5 FRI 12 PM

$$

756 
WGUS81 KOKX 112217
FLSOKX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
517 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY CONTINUES THE FLOOD 
WARNING FOR THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI...

MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI. THE RIVER
CRESTED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS
EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER 
RADIO.

&&

NJC003-120600-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110312T0600Z/
/LODN4.3.ER.110311T0620Z.110311T1746Z.110312T0300Z.NO/
517 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
* AT 0545PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING...WITH FALLING STAGES EXPECTED
  TO CONTINUE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* AT 8.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS ON MAIN STREET IN LODI.
  

&&
                   FLD        OBSERVED     FORECAST
 LOCATION          STG          STG        DAY TIME       CREST

SADDLE RIVER
  LODI             6.0         7.63       FRI 5 PM     7.0 FRI 7 PM 

$$

369 
WGUS81 KOKX 112304
FLSOKX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
604 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY CONTINUES THE FLOOD 
WARNING FOR THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI. THE RIVER
CRESTED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
10 PM...IF NOT SOONER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER 
RADIO.

&&

NJC003-120300-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110312T0300Z/
/LODN4.3.ER.110311T0620Z.110311T1746Z.110312T0300Z.NO/
604 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI
* UNTIL THIS EVENING
* AT 0630PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.99 FEET
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING...WITH THE RIVER EXPECTED TO FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 10 PM.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET
 

&&
                   FLD        OBSERVED     FORECAST
 LOCATION          STG          STG        DAY TIME       CREST

SADDLE RIVER
  LODI             6.0         6.99       FRI 5 PM     7.0 FRI 7 PM 

$$

782 
WGUS81 KOKX 120023
FLSOKX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI IS CANCELLED...

NJC003-120053-
/O.CAN.KOKX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110312T0300Z/
/LODN4.3.ER.110311T0620Z.110311T1746Z.110311T2341Z.NO/
723 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI
* UNTIL THIS EVENING
* AT 07PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.9 FEET...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET
 
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
654 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW AND FRONT PASS THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PA THROUGH WESTERN VA WILL
CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL PA TONIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARDS WESTERN UPSTATE NY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A NEGATIVELY-TILTING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD. PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK WITH PRIMARILY
LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN
POSSIBLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE WEST AND
HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
BREEZY SE FLOW THROUGH THIS TONIGHT.

FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE WARM FRONT...EXTENDING EAST FROM THE
COLD FRONT...WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE IT WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT...THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE THAT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
WARM-SECTORED FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 55-65KT WINDS AT 925MB WILL
PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS...COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY
ALOFT... WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH CONTINUED SE-S FLOW...TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH
TONIGHT. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S. BLENDED MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...WHICH AGREED VERY WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NEGATIVELY-TILTED COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. GFS IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN
NAM/ECMWF...BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIP MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY WITH DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE
MORNING OVER METRO NYC AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH MOD/HEAVY
RAIN MOVING INTO SE CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOW LEVEL JET WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY...SO STORM TOTAL QPF IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HIGH OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS OVER THE WEST. GENERALLY 2-3 INCHES LIKELY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND 1-2 INCHES
OVER THE EASTERN HALF.

WINDS WILL BECOME SW OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S EXPECTED EAST OF
NYC. BLENDED MAV/MET GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO CANADA WITH A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY DEVELOPING NW OF THE AREA. LIGHT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EASTERN
CANADA HAS CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS EARLY SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES THROUGH BY 12Z SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF MORE
COMPARABLE WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE NAM WHICH LAGS SLIGHTLY AND IS
NOT QUITE AS DEEP. AT THE SURFACE WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE
AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE MOISTURE AND SUPPORT WITH THE
FRONT AND WILL MAINLY COME THROUGH DRY. WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE COLD AIR IN PLACE
AND MAY SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. WILL
HAVE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AS THE LOW REMAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LEANED
TOWARD THE GFS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

GENERALLY QUIET EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST DURING TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HPC GUIDANCE AND THE
10/00Z ECMWF THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES OVER VA/PA WILL TRACK OVER LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS FRI.

00Z TAFS WILL KEEP WINDS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30KT INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA...SO CONTINUED
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 4-6Z.

CIGS AND VSBY WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS EVE AS RAINFALL
SPREADS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY AFTER 5Z IN THE METRO...SPREADING E THROUGH 12Z. ISOLD
TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND.

WINDS DECREASE AFTER THE HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALOFT EXIT TO THE E.

WIND SHIFT TO THE W BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING AT THIS
TIME 15Z IN THE METRO AND LATER ERN TERMINALS.

CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH VFR THEN THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.

LLWS INCREASES THIS EVE THEN DISSIPATES AFTER THE PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN. PEAK WINDS AT 2K FT AROUND 60KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

FRI NIGHT...VFR.
SAT...MOSTLY VFR. SW WND G 25KT.
SUN...VFR. NW WND G 25KT.
MON...VFR. N WND 10-15KT.
TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES OVER OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN
BELOW GALE FORCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONCERN IS THAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME MORE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN MAY MIX
DOWN HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES OVER LONG
ISLAND SOUND AND ITS BAYS/HARBORS.

WINDS DECREASE FRIDAY AS WINDS ALOFT DECREASE AND A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT MIXING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR ROUGH SEAS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE
DAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SW...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

GUSTS ON THE FORECAST WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN...WILL LIKELY BE
AROUND SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS BY EARLY SUNDAY. THEN WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE WATERS BY TUESDAY.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SATURDAY AS A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE...LIKELY FALLING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGHS BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRI IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM NYC...AND
AREAS NORTH AND WEST...TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER SE CT AND ERN LI.
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
SIGNALING THIS TO BE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ AND SW
CT.

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE NEW YORK CITY AND NASSAU
COUNTY...WHERE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS DURING HEAVY RAIN. IT COULD BE EXACERBATED DURING
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE IN AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO COASTAL FLOODING
(SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW). OVER SOUTHEAST
CT...THINK MINOR FLOODING OF SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE
THE ISSUE HERE WITH LESS QPF. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THIS STORM...ANY FLOODING IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF THE REGION...THIS IS A SERIOUS SERIOUS SITUATION
AS THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED AND WATER STILL HASN'T RECEDED
IN MANY COMMUNITIES THAT EXPERIENCED MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING
FROM THE STORM EARLIER THIS WEEK. PORTIONS OF WESTERN PASSAIC
COUNTY AND ORANGE COUNTIES HAVE SEEN 3/4 TO ONE INCH OF RAIN AS OF
4 PM THURSDAY. STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IS
LIKELY...WITH MORE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
OCCURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG E/SE WINDS IS LIKELY INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL PILE WATER ALONG THE COAST. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
2 TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR FLOODING DURING THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE RUNNING AROUND 1.5-2 FT ABOVE NORMAL IN NY
HARBOR AND LONG ISLANDS SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
DEPARTURES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2-2.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...BASED
ON A BIAS CORRECTED AVERAGING OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...HAVE
CONTINUED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. THE BIAS CORRECTED AVERAGE
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONTINUED TIDAL PILING.

THE BIAS CORRECTED AVERAGE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
WESTERN SOUND LOCATIONS WILL FALL 0.5-1 FT BELOW THE MINOR COASTAL
FLOOD THRESHOLD. THIS AFTERNOON DEPARTURES WERE RUNNING 1-1.5 FT
ON THE WESTERN SOUND...AND WERE HANDLED FAIRLY WELL BY GUIDANCE
THERE. NOTING THAT THE WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS STRONG OVER
THE SOUND...AS THEY ARE OVER NY HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS...IT MAKES
SENSE THAT LESS TIDAL PILING WILL OCCUR THERE. THEREFORE HAVE
CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN SOUND FOR
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-006-009-010.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     CTZ007-008-011-012.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>071.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ072-074-075-080-178-179.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ072>075-176>179.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/JST
MARINE...KCS/MET
HYDROLOGY...KCS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MALOIT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
703 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

CTZ005-006-009-010-NJZ002-004-103>105-107-NYZ067>071-120015-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-
EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
703 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NJZ006-106-108-120015-
HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-
703 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ007-008-011-012-120015-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
703 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-120015-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
703 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OCCASIONAL SE GALES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING CAUSED BY THE
DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN A STRONG DEPARTING HIGH OFF THE
COAST AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ350-353-355-120015-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
703 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NYZ078-079-081-120015-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
703 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY FRIDAY MORNING...A 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL FLOODING OF RIVERS...SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NYZ080-120015-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
703 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY FRIDAY MORNING...A 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL FLOODING OF RIVERS...SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NYZ072-074-075-178-179-120015-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
703 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NYZ073-176-177-120015-
BRONX-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
703 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

MALOIT