Flash Flood Watch 7, NWS New York, NY

266 
WGUS61 KOKX 051413
FFAOKX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1013 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
060000-
/O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0007.110905T1600Z-110906T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
1013 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND 
  SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN 
  MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN NEW LONDON... 
  SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN 
  AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN 
  BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION... 
  HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND 
  WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BRONX...KINGS 
  (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK... 
  NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER... 
  NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...ORANGE...PUTNAM...RICHMOND (STATEN 
  ISLAND)...ROCKLAND...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHERN NASSAU... 
  SOUTHERN QUEENS...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER AND SOUTHWESTERN 
  SUFFOLK. 

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOWLY MOVING 
  COLD FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL 
  OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. 

* HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL BE 
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING URBAN FLOODING AS WELL AS FLOODING OF 
  FAST RESPONDING RIVERS AND STREAMS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

507 
WGUS61 KOKX 051939
FFAOKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
060830-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-110906T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
339 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND 
  SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN 
  MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN NEW LONDON... 
  SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN 
  AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN 
  BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION... 
  HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND 
  WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BRONX...KINGS 
  (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK... 
  NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER... 
  NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...ORANGE...PUTNAM...RICHMOND (STATEN 
  ISLAND)...ROCKLAND...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHERN NASSAU... 
  SOUTHERN QUEENS...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER AND SOUTHWESTERN 
  SUFFOLK. 

* THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING
  COLD FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
  OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

* HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL BE 
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING URBAN FLOODING AS WELL AS FLOODING OF 
  FAST RESPONDING RIVERS AND STREAMS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

602 
WGUS61 KOKX 060824
FFAOKX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
061745-
/O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-110906T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
424 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND 
  SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN 
  MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN NEW LONDON... 
  SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN 
  AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN 
  BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION... 
  HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND 
  WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BRONX...KINGS 
  (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK... 
  NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER... 
  NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...ORANGE...PUTNAM...RICHMOND (STATEN 
  ISLAND)...ROCKLAND...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHERN NASSAU... 
  SOUTHERN QUEENS...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER AND SOUTHWESTERN 
  SUFFOLK. 

* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

* PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
  EXPECTED TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STALLED FRONT AND TROPICAL
  MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION.

* HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING URBAN FLOODING AS WELL AS FLOODING OF FAST
  RESPONDING RIVERS AND STREAMS. OVERALL HIGHER CHANCES OF
  FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NEW JERSEY AND THE LOWER
  HUDSON VALLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

478 
WGUS61 KOKX 061703
FFAOKX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
103 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
062200-
/O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-110906T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
103 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND 
  SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN 
  MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN NEW LONDON... 
  SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN 
  AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN 
  BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION... 
  HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND 
  WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BRONX...KINGS 
  (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK... 
  NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER... 
  NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...ORANGE...PUTNAM...RICHMOND (STATEN 
  ISLAND)...ROCKLAND...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHERN NASSAU... 
  SOUTHERN QUEENS...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER AND SOUTHWESTERN 
  SUFFOLK. 

* UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING

* PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
  EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STALLED FRONT AND
  TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION.

* HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL BE 
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING URBAN FLOODING AS WELL AS FLOODING OF 
  FAST RESPONDING RIVERS AND STREAMS. OVERALL HIGHER CHANCES OF 
  FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NEW JERSEY AND THE LOWER 
  HUDSON VALLEY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

889 
WGUS61 KOKX 061941
FFAOKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
341 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MORNING...

.THE COMBINATION OF A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE SOUTH BEING
OVERRUN BY TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN TO CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. 
 
CTZ005-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>070-070845-
/O.CAN.KOKX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-110906T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0009.110906T1941Z-110907T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-
WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
341 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST 
  NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD. IN 
  NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX... 
  EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION...HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN... 
  WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN 
  SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...ORANGE...PUTNAM 
  AND ROCKLAND. 

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO
  CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

* AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
  WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. DUE TO A
  SATURATED GROUND FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL
  WATER FLOW ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...THERE IS THE
  POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ACROSS AREAS OF
  POOR DRAINAGE AND FASTER RESPONDING RIVERS AND STREAMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP.

&&

$$

CTZ006>012-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-062045-
/O.CAN.KOKX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-110906T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
341 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
150 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN LINGER NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
0500Z UPDATE...ADJUSTED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ORANGE COUNTY AND TO THE EAST INTO PUTNAM WITH
LINEAR TRACKING OF THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA AS WELL AS MORE CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST FROM SE PA. ALSO
MENTIONED THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. CELLS
ARE FORMING MORE TO THE NORTH WITH THEIR EASTWARD MOVEMENT SO NOT
MUCH CHANGES TO POPS ELSEWHERE FOR REST OF OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO T/TD/SKY GRIDS BUT OVERALL REFLECT INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP
THAT MUCH WITH LOWS AROUND 70 EXPECTED ON AVERAGE.

OTHERWISE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...
WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH INTO EAST CENTRAL NY/PA MON MORNING.

MAIN SHORTWAVE FORCING AND JET FORCING WILL STILL BE WELL TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT LLJ BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN LATE
TONIGHT. THIS INCREASED LIFT OF A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MAINTAIN AND PERHAPS INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASINGLY
MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG INVERSION. AREAS OF ADVECTION
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL AREAS...WITH
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PIVOT TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD FRONT GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CROSSING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL HAVE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LEE ENTRAINING INTO THE REGION...WITH
PWATS EXPECTED TO REACH 2 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY.

INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE AHEAD/ALONG FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INCREASING SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND INCREASINGLY TROPICAL SOUNDINGS...
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL...SO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
WITH BEST FORCING NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION AND BEST
INSTABILITY SOUTH AND WEST...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ DURING PEAK INSTABILITY AXIS.

THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE ALL HINTING AT SOME TYPE OF FRONTAL WAVE
DEVELOPMENT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE REGION MON EVE. THE QUESTION
IS EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...WHICH WITH ITS ENHANCED
LIFT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DETERMINE WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY. LATEST

DUE TO ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING OF QUICK RESPONDING SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS IN NE NJ AND
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IF THERE IS TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND/OR HEAVY RAIN AXIS WITH THE WAVE TRACKS OVER THE REGION. STILL
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BASED ON
UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF CONVECTION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
ADDRESS IN HWO.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HUMID AIRMASS...AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN FACING BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF NYC...THEN TOWARDS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SFC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE WILL MEANDER OVER THE GULF
COAST BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRES SPIN OFF OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE
AND MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. SINCE THESE WAVES WILL HAVE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. BY FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRES TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...
AND THIS COULD BE THE ONLY DRY PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM.

MEANWHILE...TROPICAL SYSTEM KATIA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
U.S. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM TRACKING CLOSE TO THE OUTER BANKS
OF NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE TURNING EAST AND TRACKING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES. EITHER WAY...KATIA
LOOKS TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH IS FASTER THAN
THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT STILL A BIT SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST AS
COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS...SOME OF THE OUTER BANDS COULD SPIN TOWARDS
COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. BASED ON THE 12Z GFS...AN UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WILL PICK UP KATIA AND STEER IT AWAY
FROM THE MAINLAND. BASED ON THE 12Z ECMWF...THAT TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST BEFORE KATIA APPROACHES...AND DOESN/T PICK IT
UP UNTIL KATIA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS WELL SOUTH
OF MONTAUK POINT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL QUITE LOW REGARDING HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION...BUT STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH
EROSION ARE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH BY AN HOUR OR TWO. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG AFTER 09Z. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR. ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.

BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION AFTER 16Z WILL BE FROM THE NYC
TERMINALS AND NORTH AND WEST. NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AND WILL INDICATE WITH CB/S IN THE
TERMINALS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
06Z TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MON NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AS A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH.
TUE...POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE AFTN...THEN MVFR OR LOWER
OVERNIGHT.
WED-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH SEAS CURRENTLY 3 TO 4
FT...THEY WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND SE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE KATIA BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRI/...SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE KATIA WILL IMPACT THE OCEAN WATERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5
TO 7 FT BY WED...THEN TO 8 TO 10 FT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS...WILL
EXTEND THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH TUE. SEVERAL WAVES OF
LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE WILL
SPIN TOWARDS THE LOCAL WATERS...PRODUCING SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WILL BRING A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR
NW ZONES.

INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...THEN
POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING INTO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS
MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ENTRAINING INTO THE REGION...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH
STRONGEST CONVECTION.

GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...THERE IS A THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND QUICK RESPONDING RIVERS ACROSS NE NJ
AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS THIS
REGION OR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. 6HR FFG IN
THESE AREAS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN AN INCH.

FOR NOW NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT INSTEAD
WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN HWO AND LET NEXT
SHIFT RE-EVALUATE FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/NV
HYDROLOGY...NV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

NYZ067-052000-
ORANGE-
356 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ068>075-078>081-176>179-052000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
356 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-052000-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
356 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1229 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

NJZ002-103-NYZ067-069-050530-
ORANGE-ROCKLAND-WESTERN BERGEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-
1229 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BERGEN...ORANGE...
PASSAIC AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES...

AT 1225 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES WEST OF
BETHEL TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILFORD TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BEATTYESTOWN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES AN HOUR...IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. THIS
COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4150 7475 4151 7448 4160 7438 4164 7427
      4161 7424 4159 7414 4162 7413 4162 7410
      4110 7401 4100 7435 4101 7443 4104 7444
      4102 7449 4108 7451 4119 7438 4135 7471
      4143 7476

JC