Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
341 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT SCT TSTMS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 AND ALONG AND W OF I-65 THIS
EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 203 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

MAIN FORECAST QUANDARIES...ASSOCIATED IMPACT OF NWLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...TEMPS.

AS FOR TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISO TSTMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...ESPECIALLY THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU REGION THRU THE EARLY EVENING HRS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MOCLR TO PTCDLY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
NRN HALF OF THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ENOUGH
INCREASED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISO TSTMS ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE COMING IN
LATE...AND LIGHT SLY FLOW EXPECTED AT BEST...WILL UNDERCUT BOTH
GFS/NAM MOS VALUES...AND GO WITH LOWS CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70...MID 60S CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU REGION.

AS FOR FRI...AS WITH MOST NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIMES...IT CAN BE
HARD TO PLACE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A WIDE AREA FOR CERTAIN...
WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PASSAGES...ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES...
AND AIRMASS MOISTURE CONTENT...PLAYING KEY ROLES. CONSENSUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HOWEVER ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE ACROSS THE MID STATE
DURING THE MORNING AND ALSO DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HRS. WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING TO OUR N...MID STATE SHOULD PERHAPS EXPERIENCE
A LITTLE BIT MORE SLY WIND AND MOISTURE FLOW...RESULTING IN THESE
ISO TSTMS DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S...UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION.

AS FOR FRI NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS
CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...AS THIS
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL OF EXPERIENCING IMPACTS
FROM SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PASSAGES IN THE FLOW. WITH EXPECTING A LITTLE BIT
MORE CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT AS COMPARED TO TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S...UPPER 60S CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION.

AS FOR SAT...SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON WHETHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGES IN
NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...OR IF FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN NATURE...
OR HAVE SOME SLIGHT RIDGING CHARACTERISTICS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL
CONTINUE WITH ISO TSTMS THRU THE DAY...A GENERAL VARIABLE CLOUDINESS TREND
PER POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE PASSAGES...AND CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURE VALUES AROUND 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUING IN THE MID 90S...
UPPER 80S CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE MID STATE ON SUN...AND THIS...LIKE MORNING
DISCUSSION STATED...WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE MID STATE AND CHANCE SHWRS/TSTMS FROM SUN THRU MON.
NWLY FLOW WILL AGAIN BE PREDOMINATELY ESTABLISHED THRU NEXT WEEK...
AND JUST CAN NOT RULE OUT ISO TSTMS THRU THE ENTIRE PERIOD...AS
AGAIN...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WILL CONTINUE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES...AND OVERALL AIRMASS MOISTURE CONTENT...
ALSO PLAYING KEY ROLES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE AROUND OR IN THE
LOWER 90S...MID TO UPPER 80S CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-191030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
500 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ROSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
307 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

TNZ006-007-182030-
MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-
307 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTGOMERY AND ROBERTSON
COUNTIES...

AT 302 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUTHRIE...OR 18 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTHWESTERN ROBERTSON
COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

AT THIS TIME...THIS THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HALF INCH
SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH IN MONTGOMERY AND ROBERTSON
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM REMAINS SEVERE...A WARNING FOR
STRONGER WINDS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3655 8665 3643 8702 3659 8726 3665 8723
      3665 8712 3666 8668

13

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
347 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

TNZ006-007-026-027-182115-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-
347 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DAVIDSON...MONTGOMERY
AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES...

AT 346 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD...MOVING SOUTH
AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN CHEATHAM...NORTHERN DAVIDSON
AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3634 8676 3638 8725 3665 8711 3665 8681

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
437 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CEDAR HILL              36.55N 87.00W
08/18/2011                   ROBERTSON          TN   PUBLIC

            PLAYHOUSE BLOWN INTO ROAD AND DESTROYED. SHINGLES BLOWN
            OFF OUTBUILDING. CROPS BLOWN DOWN.

&&

SHAMBURGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
438 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

TNZ006>008-025>028-059-062-182230-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-DICKSON-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SUMNER-
WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
438 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DAVIDSON...DICKSON...
MONTGOMERY...ROBERTSON...RUTHERFORD...SUMNER...WILLIAMSON AND WILSON
COUNTIES...

AT 431 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CHEATHAM...ROBERTSON AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THAT ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST 20 MPH. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS KICKED OFF OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS. THIS
OUTFLOW HAS WIND GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 MPH...AND WILL MOVE
DOWN THROUGH THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA SHORTLY.

LAT...LON 3633 8626 3631 8627 3630 8625 3599 8613
      3584 8658 3588 8704 3658 8764 3664 8764
      3666 8659 3664 8656 3666 8639

BOYD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
529 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

TNZ005-006-022-023-182315-
BENTON-HOUSTON-MONTGOMERY-STEWART-
529 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BENTON...HOUSTON...MONTGOMERY AND
STEWART COUNTIES...

AT 523 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS STEWART COUNTY THAT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN BENTON AND HOUSTON COUNTIES ALONG WITH
WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY BY 6 PM. LOOK FOR FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3643 8740 3633 8749 3633 8752 3630 8752
      3624 8757 3622 8770 3625 8778 3623 8784
      3624 8795 3618 8794 3615 8815 3622 8814
      3626 8809 3636 8810 3637 8801 3644 8807
      3653 8804 3662 8806 3668 8797

BOYD