Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
529 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

.AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z ACROSS THE MID STATE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND
WILL TRANSLATE INTO LOW CIGS AND LOW VSBYS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011/

DISCUSSION...
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW EAST OF THE CWA...BUT ISO STORMS
ALREADY REFIRING BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THESE STORMS FORMING
AHEAD OF SFC/UPPER LOWS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL MO/IL
VICINITY. SFC LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO OH BY DAYS END...WITH UPPER
TROUGH CLOSE TO THE TN RIVER. THIS WILL BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES
WILL REMAIN PLENTY UNSTABLE AND WHILE FIRST BATCH OF DEEP MOISTURE
CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE PLATEAU...SECONDARY SOURCE WILL ENTER THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHWRS/STORMS TO THE MID-STATE TODAY...INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS FIRST
PASSING SQUALL LINE BUT ISO SEVERE NOT OUT OF QUESTION...ESPECIALLY
THRU 21Z OR SO.

UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY FLATTENING
UL FLOW FRI INTO SAT. DURING THIS TIME-FRAME...SFC BOUNDARY SETS UP
WELL NORTH WHICH SHOULD KEEP STORM TRACK ACROSS OH VALLEY.

AFTER THAT POINT...DRY AND WARM TREND SETS IN SUN-WED AS SFC/UPPER
HIGHS DOMINATE THE SCENE. TUE NIGHT/WED HOWEVER...BACKDOOR SFC/LL
FRONT WORKS DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL SPREAD SOME
MOISTURE UNDER RIDGE INTO EAST TN/PLATEAU. THAT MAY ALLOW ISO
STORMS TO DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL THE CWA WILL REMAIN
RAINFREE THRU THIS PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
513 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-271015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
513 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TODAY...
ESPECIALLY FROM NASHVILLE METRO EASTWARD. SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
434 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

TNZ094-095-261000-
GILES-LAWRENCE-
434 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILES AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

AT 432 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LORETTO...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LAWRENCEBURG...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
505 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

TNZ095-261035-
GILES-
505 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILES COUNTY...

AT 500 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PULASKI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

21