Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
337 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH ANALYSIS
SHOWING WARM FRONT HOLDING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. ALOFT...ML/UL
LOWS/TROFS REMAIN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...LEAVING WEST/SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE MID-SOUTH. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE
NEAR/AHEAD OF SFC LOW/BOUNDARY IN THE PLAINS AND RIDE EASTWARD IN
ML FLOW. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTH CWA
NEAR POSITIVE FLUX AND POTENTIAL TEMP MAX...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.

SAME GENERAL TYPE OF WX EXPECTED TODAY THRU WED AS SFC/UPPER LOWS
ADVANCE TO NEAR MCI VICINITY 00Z THU. WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH AS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS. BY 00Z FRI
SFC/UPPER LOWS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WITH COLD
FRONT JUST WEST...BUT IT IS WEAKENING. ML/UL TROFS DO SWING BY
EARLY THU NIGHT BUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEEMS TO WASH OUT AS NEXT
SFC LOW FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY FRI. ULTIMATELY TREND
FOR ISO-SCT SHWRS/STORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE
TODAY-TOMORROW.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN WED NIGHT/THU AHEAD OF SFC/UL LOWS.
INCREASE IN FORCING/DEEP MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ALSO INCREASE TSTORM
COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ON INTO THU AS THE FEATURES PASS.
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS STAY ON HIGHER SIDE AND AGAIN SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65.

ML/UL FLOW REMAINS MORE WESTERLY FRI-SAT AS CLOSED LOWS CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST NORTHWEST WHICH COMBINED WITH WEAK MOISTURE SOURCE MAY BRING
A FEW AREA STORMS LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT.

ML/UL RIDGES FINALLY BUILD IN ON SUN AND REMAINS STRONG INTO EARLY
WEEK. A ROUGE STORM OR TWO MAY FORM IN STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING
BUT THE MID-STATE WILL REMAIN DRY BY IN LARGE INTO TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      86  68  88  69 /  40  10  20  60
CLARKSVILLE    85  66  85  68 /  40  20  30  60
CROSSVILLE     82  63  85  66 /  40  10  20  20
COLUMBIA       88  68  88  69 /  30  10  20  60
LAWRENCEBURG   88  67  87  68 /  30  10  20  60
WAVERLY        86  67  87  69 /  40  20  30  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1008 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-250315-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
1008 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...

STORMS OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME PARTS OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAVE RECEIVED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS...AND ANY HEAVY RAINS THAT FALL IN THESE LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE. THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES OF ACTIVE
WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
234 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

TNZ093-240800-
WAYNE-
234 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE COUNTY...

AT 228 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF OLIVE HILL...OR 13 MILES EAST OF
SAVANNAH...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
330 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

TNZ057-058-060-240900-
HICKMAN-LEWIS-MAURY-
330 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HICKMAN...LEWIS AND MAURY
COUNTIES...

AT 328 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOHENWALD...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
426 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

TNZ024-025-057-241015-
DICKSON-HICKMAN-HUMPHREYS-
426 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKSON...HICKMAN AND HUMPHREYS
COUNTIES...

AT 424 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DICKSON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN HUMPHREYS...NORTHEASTERN HICKMAN AND WESTERN
DICKSON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DICKSON AND BURNS...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
503 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 AM     HAIL             4 NE NASHVILLE          36.21N 86.73W
05/24/2011  E1.25 INCH       DAVIDSON           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR OPRY MILLS

0455 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE NASHVILLE          36.21N 86.73W
05/24/2011  M65.00 MPH       DAVIDSON           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR OPRY MILLS

&&

MRICHARD