Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Nashville, TN

109 
WWUS54 KOHX 122159
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
459 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

TNC081-119-187-122215-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-110512T2215Z/
MAURY TN-HICKMAN TN-WILLIAMSON TN-
459 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL
WILLIAMSON...NORTHEASTERN HICKMAN AND NORTHWESTERN MAURY COUNTIES
UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 458 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF CENTERVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME EASTERN HICKMAN...EXTREME
  NORTHWESTERN MAURY AND EXTREME WESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3587 8735 3588 8735 3597 8723 3597 8720
      3587 8706 3574 8721 3586 8737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 226DEG 15KT 3583 8727

$$
31

806 
WWUS54 KOHX 122210
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
510 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

TNC081-119-187-122215-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-110512T2215Z/
MAURY TN-HICKMAN TN-WILLIAMSON TN-
510 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL
WILLIAMSON...NORTHEASTERN HICKMAN AND NORTHWESTERN MAURY COUNTIES
UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 510 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAIRVIEW...OR
13 MILES EAST OF CENTERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME EASTERN HICKMAN AND EXTREME WESTERN
  WILLIAMSON COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3597 8720 3587 8707 3587 8706 3577 8722
      3584 8729 3588 8725 3597 8723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 226DEG 15KT 3586 8723

$$
31

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
403 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

.SHORT TERM...WITH UPPER RIDGE NOW EAST OF OUR AREA, AND UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WE ARE NOW SEEING INTERMITTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF THE ARK-LA-TX AREA TOWARD
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ONE OF THOSE DISTURBANCES PUSHED INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, SPARKING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS A
RESULT, WILL INCLUDE A LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD IN THE UPCOMING ZFP
PACKAGE.

EXPECT THE CURRENT BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS TO LOSE SOME STEAM AFTER
SUNSET. HOWEVER, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO
OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MID STATE ON FRIDAY.
THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING, WITH MAINLY JUST SCATTERED
CONVECTION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
00Z/SATURDAY, AND TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY 12Z/SATURDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIKELY IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

STARTING SATURDAY, WE MAKE A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES...FROM HAVING
HIGH TEMPS RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, TO HIGH TEMPS RUNNING
SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE LIKE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL DAY, AS UPPER
LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN LIKELY AS THIS UPPER PASSES BY. HIGHS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

AS UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, BELIEVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.

PLAN TO KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS RELATIVELY COOL THROUGH SUNDAY, AND LITTLE
DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPS DUE TO CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL PERIOD CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW ROTATES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

SUNSHINE FINALLY STARTS TO BECOME MORE PLENTIFUL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK, AS UPPER LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY START TO RECOVER TO AT LEAST THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S MOST AREAS BY NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  83  59  69 /  40  70  70  60
CLARKSVILLE    65  83  57  67 /  40  70  70  60
CROSSVILLE     61  80  58  68 /  30  60  60  60
COLUMBIA       67  84  59  70 /  50  70  70  60
LAWRENCEBURG   65  84  59  71 /  50  70  70  60
WAVERLY        66  83  58  68 /  50  70  70  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
251 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-131000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
251 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
WARM, UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH
THE 80'S. MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS,
ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WEST OF
NASHVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM COMBINED WITH GOOD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

MAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

TNZ005>007-022>026-056>058-093-094-122200-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-
CHEATHAM-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
CAMDEN...ERIN...WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...LOBELVILLE...
CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG
335 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG,
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MILES AN HOUR, HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF FLOODING. THE CELLS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 25 MILES AN HOUR.

ROSE