Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Nashville, TN

050 
WWUS54 KOHX 022118
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
418 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

TNC135-181-022130-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0163.000000T0000Z-110502T2130Z/
PERRY TN-WAYNE TN-
418 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
WAYNE AND SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 417 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF OLIVE HILL...OR 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WAYNESBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LINDEN.

LAT...LON 3549 8798 3554 8797 3569 8775 3566 8772
      3562 8766 3557 8765 3556 8769 3552 8769
      3550 8772 3549 8770 3536 8795 3547 8801
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 249DEG 35KT 3543 8793

$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
310 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AREA
MOVING EWD INTO THE LOWER PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS THE
MIDSTATE TUE NGT. AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE FROM PARKERSBURG WVA TO BOWLING GREEN KY TO OXFORD MS AND IS
CONTINUING A SLOW EWD MOVEMENT. MODELS CONTINUE THE EWD MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT OVER 10 WRN COUNTIES
UNTIL MIDDAY TUE. WE EXPECT 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THIS AREA
THRU NOON TUE. ELSEWHERE...1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OVER THE WATCH AREA...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY
TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE NGT AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THU AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
LOW TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR TUE NGT. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER NICELY INTO THE 60S BY WED AFTN AND THE LOW 70S
BY THU AFTN.

WE GET 2 WEAK TROUGHS SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA THU NGT THROUGH SAT
NGT GENERATING A 20-30 PCT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPS
RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 70S IN THIS TIME PERIOD...CLOSE TO CLIMO.

A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA BY WED BRINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MIDSTATE ON WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  55  40  63 / 100 100  20   0
CLARKSVILLE    47  57  37  63 / 100  80  10   0
CROSSVILLE     55  55  36  57 /  70 100  40   0
COLUMBIA       52  57  40  64 /  90 100  20   0
LAWRENCEBURG   53  58  40  64 /  80  90  20   0
WAVERLY        49  57  38  64 / 100  90  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TNZ005>007-022>026-
056-057.

&&

JLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
520 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-031030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
520 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A THREAT OF FLOODING FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE
MID STATE WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. STREAMS AND
RIVERS ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH. EXPECTED RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE FLOOD
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WILL BRING THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. STREAMS AND RIVERS IN THE NORTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SOME OVER FLOOD STAGE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE.

13