River Flood Advisory 32, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT NEAR THE MR RIVER THIS MORNING...WITH
BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD NOW ACROSS THE MID-STATE. BAND OF STRONGER
STORMS PRODUCING WINDS 50-60KTS ALREADY ALONG THE PLATEAU...BUT
STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BACK WEST DESPITE AIRMASS STABILIZING
SOME BEHIND SQUALL LINE. BETTER JET STRUCTURE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTH AND BETTER INSTABILITY SHIFTING SOUTH WILL TRANSITION
SEVERE THREAT TO SOUTH MIDDLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN FURTHER
SOUTH OF THE MID-STATE BY 15-17Z OR SO.

CONVECTION LITTLE FURTHER EAST THEN MODELS SHOWING AND OTHER THAN
ISO-SCT SHWRS/STORMS EXTREME SOUTH/EAST...WIDESPREAD PCPN
GENERALLY ENDING THIS MORNING AS FRONT PASSES AND MOVES INTO
GA/AL/MS LATER IN THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN DOWN THERE
TONIGHT BUT LAGGING MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW STORMS TO MAINLY THE
SOUTH AS SFC/LL HIGH SETTLES INTO THE TN VALLEY. ML/UL FLOW ZONAL
OVER THE REGION THRU THU BUT BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH GETS CONNECTED
UP WITH NEXT PLAINS SYSTEM WHICH EVENTUALLY DRAGS FRONT BACK
ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT. POPS WILL RAMP BACK UP
THEN BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE TONIGHT/THU.

WARM FRONT MOVES FURTHER NORTH ON FRI AS SFC/LL LOWS MOVE INTO THE
UPPER MID-WEST...PUTTING THE CWA WELL BACK IN WARM SECTOR AND LOW
POP REGIME. ML/UL STEERING FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY
THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING
ALONG IT WILL ALSO HELP KEEP FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH/WEST OF THE MID-
STATE THRU MON NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN LIMITED CONVECTION THRU THAT
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS.

THIS FRONT FINALLY LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH TUES/TUES NIGHT AS ML/UL
TROF GETS INTO THE PICTURE. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN AFTER WARM FRONT PASSES THU NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST RAINFALL REPORTS AND RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWING MOST LOCALS
IN THE .5 INCH RANGE OR LESS. SOME PLACES ALONG THE PLATEAU IN
THE .5 TO 1 INCH RANGE WITH POCKETS TO 1.5. OVERALL..RAINFALL
TOTALS SO FAR...AND EXPECTED ADDITIONAL...LOOK TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW FLOOD GUIDANCE. FLOOD POTENTIAL LOOKS MARGINAL AND LOCALIZED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      73  51  72  60 /  50  20  30  50
CLARKSVILLE    68  46  69  59 /  10  10  30  50
CROSSVILLE     73  49  67  58 /  60  20  30  50
COLUMBIA       74  55  73  62 /  50  30  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   76  55  73  62 /  60  40  40  30
WAVERLY        71  50  71  61 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
904 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-211415-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
904 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND PARTS OF THE PLATEAU...SOUTH OF I 40...
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND A FEW MAY BR BRIEFLY
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
315 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 AM     HAIL             MONTEREY                36.13N 85.24W
04/20/2011  E0.75 INCH       PUTNAM             TN   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL AND ESTIMATED 40 MPH WIND GUST IN
            MONTEREY.

&&

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 AM     HAIL             MCMINNVILLE             35.69N 85.78W
04/20/2011  E0.50 INCH       WARREN             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE HALF INCH HAIL REPORTED IN MCMINNVILLE.

&&

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
426 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SE CLARKSVILLE        36.51N 87.28W
04/20/2011                   MONTGOMERY         TN   NEWSPAPER

            LARGE TREE BLOCKING HWY 41A BETWEEN BAGWELL AND DURHAM
            ROADS.

&&

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
552 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E ERIN                36.32N 87.61W
04/20/2011                   HOUSTON            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMA REPORTS MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN EASTERN HOUSTON
            COUNTY. SEVERAL ROADS WERE BLOCKED AND POWER LINES WERE
            TAKEN DOWN BY THE TREES.

&&

TJ

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