Wind Advisory 14, NWS Omaha, NE

Fremont County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Mills County, IA, Monona County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Burt County, NE, Butler County, NE, Cass County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Platte County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE, Wayne County, NE

167 
WWUS73 KOAX 072218
NPWOAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
518 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ015-018-032>034-042>045-
050>053-065>068-078-088>093-072330-
/O.CAN.KOAX.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-111008T0000Z/
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-THURSTON-WAYNE-STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-
OTOE-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONAWA...MISSOURI VALLEY...HARLAN...
COUNCIL BLUFFS...GLENWOOD...RED OAK...SIDNEY...CLARINDA...
PENDER...WAYNE...STANTON...WEST POINT...TEKAMAH...COLUMBUS...
SCHUYLER...FREMONT...BLAIR...DAVID CITY...WAHOO...OMAHA...
BELLEVUE...SEWARD...LINCOLN...PLATTSMOUTH...NEBRASKA CITY...
CRETE...FAIRBURY...BEATRICE...TECUMSEH...AUBURN...PAWNEE CITY...
FALLS CITY
518 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA/VALLEY HAS CANCELLED THE
WIND ADVISORY. 

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BELOW 30 MPH ACROSS THE AREA...THEREFORE
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK...KOMA.

SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SITUATION DURING THE 24HR FCST PERIOD. PCPN
ACTIVITY WILL BE CENTERED AROUND A FRONTAL BNDRY EXPECTED TO STALL
LATER THIS MORNING...AND EXTEND FROM ABOUT SRN MN TO WRN KS. AT
THIS POINT...MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ACTIVITY
UNTIL AFTER 08/06Z WHEN THE BNDRY DRIFTS A BIT MORE EAST INTO ERN
NEB. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH A PROB30
GROUP BTWN 08/06Z-12Z. MEANWHILE...TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KT AT
ALL TERMINALS THRU THIS AFTN...WITH NO CROSSWIND THREAT EXPECTED.

DEE

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
EARLIER...AND HAVE FINALLY PUSHED INTO OUR WESTERN CWA. THERE HAS
BEEN A MARKED DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THESE STORMS AS MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ARE LACKING HERE. HOWEVER MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG
50-65KT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE AXIS OF SHOWERS SHIFTS EAST. MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
KANSAS BORDER IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO PARTS
OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS WELL.

EXPECT CURRENT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING AS UPPER VORT
LOBE ROTATES NORTHEAST. MORE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FIRE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA HELPED BY
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING INTO THE PLAINS AROUND MAIN UPPER LOW
CENTERED IN WYOMING. MODELS SHOW SURFACE-BASED CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG
NOSING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 00Z. 50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR WILL
NEARLY PARALLEL LINE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AXIS OF
INSTABILITY...SUGGESTING LINEAR STORM CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS
INSTABILITY WANES. HOWEVER ANOTHER AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
ENTERING THE PLAINS THEN. MORE STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR MIDNIGHT AHEAD
OF INDUCED SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL SPREAD FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE. GFS SUGGESTS
A ROBUST CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO OUR
WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

OVERALL...HAVE FOLLOWED GFS TIMING AND POSITIONING FOR THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS COME
IN LOOKING SIMILAR...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASED SOMEWHAT. MEAN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH POSITION LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS KEEPS SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WEST OF OUR CWA WITH
PRECIPITATION FOCUSING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND OUR WESTERN CWA.
SO HAVE REALIGNED POPS WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OUT WEST UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BRING SMALL PRECIP CHANCES AS A MORE BROAD
AND SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE TROUGH SETS UP AND DRIFTS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS DOWN IN OUR WESTERN
CWA. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE LIKELY IN OUR NORTHWEST CWA WHERE RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

DERGAN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
419 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-072330-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
419 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING...MAINLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING.

HOWEVER SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM TEKAMAH
TO FREMONT...WAHOO AND CRETE. AFTER THE MORNING STORMS
DISSIPATE...A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL FOCUS
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR SUGGEST DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE
NORTHEAST WHILE THE LINE OF STORMS DRIFTS TO THE EAST. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING...HOWEVER STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THEY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. MOST OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA CAN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. AGAIN SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.