Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IS TIMING OF HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT 500 MB STILL FEATURES RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES WITH FAIRLY FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK. A PRETTY STRONG WAVE WILL TRACK FROM ALBERTA TODAY SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY MID DAY MONDAY. IN GENERAL...HEIGHTS WILL
FALL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTING TO MORE ALONG THE BORDER OF THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO
THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...THE WESTERN END OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE
EXTENDING FROM WISCONSIN BACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS SHOULD BE
NEARLY STATIONARY. DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE FRONT HAD DROPPED INTO THE
60S...BUT 70S CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE 00Z OUTPUT FROM THE
GFS MODEL SEEMS REASONABLE. IT SHOWS THAT HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD INTO IOWA BY THIS EVENING
WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE UP TO ABOUT 850 MB
NORTH OF THE FRONT. SOME ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST THIS MORNING. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WILL MORE ACTIVITY
DEVELOP AFTER THAT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF
THAT OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. CHANCES LOOK EVEN BETTER
FOR TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
TO OVER 40 KNOTS OVER KANSAS. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK THAT
SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THERE
COULD ALSO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SO HAVE MENTIONED BOTH IN GRIDS.

PATTERN STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN
IT APPEARS OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE...BUT THIS WILL MOVE
EAST AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF BUILD A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH PUTS US IN FAIRLY
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK

06Z TAFS

TSTMS HAVE MIXED THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING...AND NO WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG ARE EXPECTED. A TSTM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NEB...AND THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE KLNK AREA AFTER
11Z. OTHERWISE ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...TRACKING FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN AND PARTICULARLY
SOUTHEAST NEB. KLNK LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS DURING THE
EVENING...WITH LESSER CHANCES BUT STILL POSSIBLE AT KOMA AND KOFK.
SFC WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT...FROM THE NORTH AT 5 KTS THIS
MORNING...BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...MILLER
AVIATION...TAYLOR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
701 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-071415-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
701 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN HAZARDS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...COMBINED WITH HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...WILL
TRIGGER THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WILL TRACK TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 OR 25 MPH. THE STORMS SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR 1
AM.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NUMEROUS WEATHER DISTURBANCES
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THERE MAY BE ANOTHER THREAT FOR STRONG
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

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