Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA...BEING PUSHED BY A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE A TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN 40 KTS OF
BULK SHEAR AND 3000 TO 4000 J/KG OF CAPE...WITH A CAP THAT APPEARS
TO HAVE SUFFICIENTLY ERODED. FREEZING LEVEL WAS FAIRLY HIGH AROUND
14250 AGL...THUS IT WOULD LIKELY TAKE A HEALTHY 50DBZ CORE UP TO
ABOUT 39000 FEET TO GENERATE ANY SEVERE HAIL. DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS ALONG WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPES 1200-1400 COULD LEAD TO SOME
WIND GUSTS AS WELL. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE COULD ALSO CONGEAL AND MOVE EASTWARD...OR CONVECTION
MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING
MAINLY EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WOLD ALSO BE A
FACTOR FOR CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY CONVECTION
COULD BE LIKELY STILL ONGOING WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT SOUTH OF
I80...AND COULD VERY WELL END UP ACROSS KANSAS/MISSOURI BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY BEFORE A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
AREA BY FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT SETTLING AND REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S TOMORROW...BUT EVENTUALLY WARMING BACK TO THE MID
80S BY FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COULD HOLD TEMPS BACK JUST A
BIT SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FLAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF WEATHER
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD BRUSH THE FAR
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG CAP CONTINUES
TO BUILD FURTHER SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO WARM FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY...INTO THE MID 90S ON SUNDAY AS A WARM BUBBLE
BUILDS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY THOUGH...THEN STALL IN TYPICAL FASHION
ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI. THIS...COMBINED WITH WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DEWALD

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK

18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE SOME
CEILINGS MAY GO BELOW 3000 FEET IN SOME OF THE CELLS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN STALLS OUT OUT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
VISIBILITIES MAY BE 3-5 MILES WITH FOG AT KOMA TONIGHT AFTER 09Z.

SMITH

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
412 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-061115-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
412 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ALBION TO TEKAMAH TO HARLAN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS GENERALLY LOW.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING IN SOME AREAS.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>