Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.

COMPLEX SITUATION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS AND WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH. ALSO THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME SIGNALS THAT HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHERE HEAVY
RAIN MAY OCCUR AND GROUND IS ALREADY WET FROM RECENT
RAINFALL...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO TEKAMAH
INCLUDING ALL OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE CONCERNS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD BE INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 12Z MONDAY. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA...THEN SUBSIDENCE SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM
HOLDS ON TO THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LONGER...WHILE THE GFS/EC
ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE. HAVE TRENDED ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE WITH
DECREASING POPS MONDAY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE TRYING TO WORK BACK
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME CU DEVELOP
WITH TRIGGER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT
IN THE 70S AND 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AND THEN SLIDE TO THE EAST.  THE LOW LEVEL JET RETURNS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE EDGE OF THE
CAP. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE IS A MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROS
NEVADA...AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON STATE AND IDAHO.
THROUGH THURSDAY...LIFT TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
DAKOTAS.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...HOWEVER SINCE
THE BETTER PUSH IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...THE PROGRESS OF THE
SURFACE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND THEY BOTH HAVE THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.  THE FRONT SAGS INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA SATURDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH A LITTLE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THEN...THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY. THIS PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
STARTS OUT DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND MEANDERS ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA
AND IOWA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE IS
MOVING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT RETURNS AND POOLS ALONG THE FRONT
FRIDAY AND BEYOND. HIGHS IN THE 90S THURSDAY SHOULD LOWER TO THE
80S AND 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AS THE PUSH OF COOLER AIR IS MORE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK

18Z TAFS

IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL UNTIL NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WINDS BRING SOME DRIER AIR LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO TREND TOWARD VFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z MONDAY.
TRIED TO TIME THE HIGHEST TSTM CHANCES LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BUT WILL AMMEND AS NEEDED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NEZ015-033-034-
     043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY/MILLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
456 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-271200-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
456 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. STORMS
DEVELOPING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA COULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE A TORNADO COULD ALSO FORM IN
THIS AREA IF STORMS WOULD BE MORE SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER...A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCE OF TORNADOES EXISTS CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT FROM CRETE AND FAIRBURY EAST THROUGH FALLS CITY...ALTHOUGH
STORMS IN THIS REGION ARE CONDITIONAL IN BREAKING A CAP THAT
PREVAILED ACROSS THAT REGION AS OF LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE SAND HILLS OF NEBRASKA WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS
EVENING FROM THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT. TRAINING OF THE STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE
WIDER AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE AREA TONIGHT SOUTHEAST OF A COLUMBUS TO WAYNE LINE.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW MORE STORMS.

HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY MID WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 95 TO 100 BY THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SUMMER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

CHERMOK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
848 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     HAIL             CRETE                   40.63N 96.96W
06/26/2011  E1.25 INCH       SALINE             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CZAPOTOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
856 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     TSTM WND GST     OMAHA                   41.26N 96.01W
06/26/2011  M56 MPH          DOUGLAS            NE   ASOS

&&

CZAPOTOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
913 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     TSTM WND GST     OAKLAND                 41.31N 95.40W
06/26/2011  E60 MPH          POTTAWATTAMIE      IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
913 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

IAZ043-055-056-NEZ015-034-045-270315-
BURT NE-HARRISON IA-MONONA IA-SHELBY IA-THURSTON NE-WASHINGTON NE-
913 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...EASTERN
THURSTON...EASTERN BURT...HARRISON...MONONA AND SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL
1015 PM CDT...

AT 910 PM CDT...BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT HOUR.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BLAIR...
  TEKAMAH...
  MACY...
  DECATUR...
  MODALE...
  MONDAMIN...
  MISSOURI VALLEY...
  WHITING...
  ONAWA...
  PISGAH...
  LOGAN...
  MOORHEAD...
  UTE...
  DEFIANCE...
  EARLING...
  IRWIN...
  PERSIA...
  HARLAN...
  SHELBY...
  ELK HORN...

ZAPOTOCNY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
925 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     HAIL             3 E CORTLAND            40.51N 96.65W
06/26/2011  E0.88 INCH       GAGE               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB