Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT. WARM FRONT OVER KANSAS AT 18Z WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION MOVING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING.

FOBERT

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BE DRAPED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD STILL TRIGGER A
FEW STORMS IN THE MORNING...BUT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD...ALLOWING
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
STILL A WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING CAP SHOULD LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL
ON FRIDAY...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES CONVERGENCE OVER THE BOUNDARY
WITH A RENEWED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80.
THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL ALSO SEPARATE 80S TO THE NORTH AND LOWER
90S TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT THAT
STALLED NEAR OF JUST SOUTH OF I80 SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT PERIOD AND PROVIDE A DELINEATION OF
NORMAL 80S...TO HOTTER 90S TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF THE PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

DEWALD

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FLOOD CREST METHODOLOGY
TODAY FROM THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS AND MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST
CENTER. GAVINS POINT DAM INCREASED THEIR FLOW TO 81 KCFS TODAY...AND
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 85 KCFS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
UP TO 100 KCFS BY SATURDAY...WITH A 5-10 KCFS INCREASE DAILY UNTIL
WE REACH A PEAK DISCHARGE OF 150 KCFS BY JUN 10-14. TRAVEL TIME FROM
GAVINS POINT TO OMAHA IS ABOUT 3 DAYS...THUS THE CREST COULD BE IN
THE OMAHA AREA AROUND JUN 13-17. THESE ARE VERY PRELIMINARY
ESTIMATES AND ARE SUBJECT TO REVISION. ONCE WE REACH THAT CREST...
WOULD LIKELY REMAIN AT THOSE LEVELS FOR SEVERAL WEEKS. THUS ITS
IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THIS HISTORIC FLOOD EVENT IS NOT A
TYPICAL EVENT WHERE THE RIVER COMES UP AND GOES DOWN QUICKLY...IT
WILL BE A VERY PROLONGED EVENT THAT COULD LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE SUMMER.

DEWALD

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK

18Z TAFS

WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AT 18Z WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE DAKOTAS BY
12Z ON THURSDAY. AREA OF CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST
KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH WITH THE
FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THREE SITES DURING
THE EVENING.

FOBERT

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
510 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-021215-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
510 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE BEST AXIS FOR STORMS
WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH SOME HAIL
STILL POSSIBLE.

FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM VERDEL
THROUGH RULO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL WEEKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT IF
STRONG STORMS DEVELOP...SPOTTER REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

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