River Flood Advisory 9, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
355 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL BE SHOWERS AND THEN TONIGHT;
HOW COLD TEMPERATURES WILL GET ALONG WITH FROST POTENTIAL.

AT 08Z THE COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST ARE AND WAS
SOUTH OF NORFOLK AND DENISON IOWA. A SHORTWAVE WAVE IN WRN NE AT
00Z WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AS THE
MAIN LIFT WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROF ALSO SWINGS THROUGH. WILL
MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...DECREASING IN THE NORTH
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THIS AFTERNOON SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN WITH H85 TEMPS LOWERING TO 2 DEG C IN THE
NORTH AND 4 IN THE SOUTH. CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES
AND SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WITH NORTH. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TONIGHT THE COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. TYPICALLY OUR FIRST FALL
FROST RANGES FROM SEPT 21ST TO OCT 4 AND OUR FIRST FREEZE IS SEPT
28TH TO OCT 13TH DEPENDING ON THE SIGHTING. WAYNE AND SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY BEEN DOWN TO 37. 4 INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL IN THE 60S...THUS THIS WILL HINDER TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT AS MUCH AS THEY COULD IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS AND HIGH
CLOUDS ALSO MAY HINDER FULL COOLING. FOR NOW MENTIONED FROST IN
SEVERAL OF THE ZONES AND RIVER FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AND HAVE A
FROST ADVISORY IN THE NORTHEAST. ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW THINGS ARE COOLING
OFF...BUT THOUGHT THIS WOULD BE A GOOD START.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS
THURSDAY MORNING SPREADING MID CLOUDS EASTWARD. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA...WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AND
THERE IS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WITH A COUPLED JET. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
SPREAD EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING TO SPRINKLES FRIDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WHICH IS FARTER SOUTH FRIDAY. THETA-
ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MENTIONED. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK

06Z TAFS

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A QUICK MOVING STORM
SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT OMA/LNK EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING.
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL BE CLEARING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH CLDS AGAIN
MOVING IN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE AT LNK INTO
EARLY AFTN. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ012-015-018.

IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ043.

&&

ZAPOTOCNY/BOUSTEAD

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