Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Omaha, NE

823 
WWUS83 KOAX 180024
RFWOAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 PM CST THU FEB 17 2011

NEZ016-030-031-042-043-050-065-066-078-088-089-180130-
/O.EXP.KOAX.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110218T0000Z/
ANTELOPE-BOONE-MADISON-PLATTE-COLFAX-BUTLER-SEWARD-LANCASTER-
SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-
624 PM CST THU FEB 17 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA.

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
234 PM CST THU FEB 17 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT
FOR RAIN COMES SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...COMBINED
WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE NOW TRENDING A LITTLE FURTHER WEST...WHICH PUTS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...SUGGESTING A RAIN
EVENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND ADJUSTED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SURFACE TEMPS COULD DIP TOWARD FREEZING
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THUS THERE COULD BE PATCHY FREEZING RAIN
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KOLU TO KLCG. DID INCREASE PROBABILITY
FOR PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...AND
ALSO ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS ALL MODELS ALSO INDICATING
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH NEGATIVE 850MB LIFTED INDEX VALUES
SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS WELL. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW TAKING A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
TRACK...THIS PUSHES ANY AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIAL FURTHER
NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA AS WELL. WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WE WILL
EXPERIENCE COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO AT LEAST NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WHICH SHOULD SWITCH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER TO
SNOW...BUT BY THEN THE BULK OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD BE
FURTHER NORTH AND NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS FOR OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR DOESN'T REALLY ARRIVE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

70

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIOD BEGINS WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOWING MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLING BACK INTO
THE AREA WITH SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES LOOK SHORT LIVED AT THIS TIME HOWEVER
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WAVE COMING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS MODELS SHOW MORE VARIATION REGARDING NEXT UPPER
WAVE COMING INTO THE NORTHWEST AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR INTRUSION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE
AND THE SLOWER AND WARMER EURO. LOOKS LIKE COLDER AIR WILL MAKE IT
BACK INTO THE AREA JUST A MATTER OF WHEN.

FOBERT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ICE JAM OCCURRED ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER EARLIER THIS MORNING
AND FLOOD WARNINGS WERE ISSUED VALID THROUGH 4 PM FOR SOME MINOR
FLOODING NEAR ASHLAND AND CEDAR CREEK. IT APPEARS THAT THE ICE
THAT CAUSED THE JAM HAS FLUSHED OUT PUSHING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE
MISSOURI AND THOSE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
ANOTHER ICE JAM ON THE ELKHORN RIVER AT PILGER WAS BEGINNING TO
AFFECT THE RIVER BETWEEN PILGER AND WEST POINT. THERE HAVE ALSO
BEEN BAD GAGE READINGS AT BOTH SIGHTS AT THE USGS IS ONSITE
REPAIRING THOSE AT THE MOMENT. A FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
THAT STRETCH FOR MINOR RURAL LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER
BANKS.

WITH CONTINUED WARMTH...HOPEFULLY WE CAN CONTINUE TO FLUSH OUT ICE
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND IS SLIGHTLY CONCERNING. AT THIS TIME...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH ARE FORECAST. NOT SURE THIS WILL BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS.

WITHIN BANK RISES ARE ALSO FORECAST ALONG THE NISHNABOTNA RIVER IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

70

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND OR JUST
BELOW 20 PERCENT. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...THERE IS A VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER THERE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER FUELS
MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY WET FROM RECENT SNOW AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TOWARD SUNSET.

70

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK

18Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRONTAL
PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT KOFK.
AT KOMA AND KLNK WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KT EXPECTED UNTIL 18/00Z.

DEE

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 AM CST THU FEB 17 2011

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-180130-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
525 AM CST THU FEB 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING AND ICE JAMS...MAINLY ALONG THE PLATTE...ELKHORN
AND NIOBRARA RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THUS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING AND ICE JAMS.

A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS COULD BRING A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS STILL
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND THE TRACK AND INTENSITY MAY
CHANGE...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

ZAPOTOCNY