Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Omaha, NE

Fremont County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Mills County, IA, Monona County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Burt County, NE, Butler County, NE, Cass County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.

COMPLEX SITUATION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS AND WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH. ALSO THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME SIGNALS THAT HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHERE HEAVY
RAIN MAY OCCUR AND GROUND IS ALREADY WET FROM RECENT
RAINFALL...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO TEKAMAH
INCLUDING ALL OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE CONCERNS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD BE INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 12Z MONDAY. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA...THEN SUBSIDENCE SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM
HOLDS ON TO THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LONGER...WHILE THE GFS/EC
ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE. HAVE TRENDED ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE WITH
DECREASING POPS MONDAY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE TRYING TO WORK BACK
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME CU DEVELOP
WITH TRIGGER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT
IN THE 70S AND 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AND THEN SLIDE TO THE EAST.  THE LOW LEVEL JET RETURNS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE EDGE OF THE
CAP. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE IS A MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROS
NEVADA...AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON STATE AND IDAHO.
THROUGH THURSDAY...LIFT TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
DAKOTAS.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...HOWEVER SINCE
THE BETTER PUSH IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...THE PROGRESS OF THE
SURFACE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND THEY BOTH HAVE THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.  THE FRONT SAGS INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA SATURDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH A LITTLE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THEN...THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY. THIS PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
STARTS OUT DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND MEANDERS ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA
AND IOWA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE IS
MOVING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT RETURNS AND POOLS ALONG THE FRONT
FRIDAY AND BEYOND. HIGHS IN THE 90S THURSDAY SHOULD LOWER TO THE
80S AND 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AS THE PUSH OF COOLER AIR IS MORE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK

18Z TAFS

IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL UNTIL NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WINDS BRING SOME DRIER AIR LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO TREND TOWARD VFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z MONDAY.
TRIED TO TIME THE HIGHEST TSTM CHANCES LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BUT WILL AMMEND AS NEEDED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NEZ015-033-034-
     043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY/MILLER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
316 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

IAZ069-080-262100-
MONTGOMERY IA-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-
316 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHEASTERN
POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 313 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF ELLIOTT...OR 39 MILES EAST OF
OMAHA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ELLIOTT...
  GRANT...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY. MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

KERN