Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Omaha, NE

092 
WGUS73 KOAX 051648
FFSOAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1148 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

IAC071-052030-
/O.CON.KOAX.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110605T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FREMONT IA-
1148 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR RAPID RIVER RISES REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

EARLIER SUNDAY MORNING...US ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS AND EMERGENCY 
MANAGEMENT OF FREMONT COUNTY REPORTED THAT A SECOND PARTIAL LEVEE 
BREACH OCCURRED SOUTH OF HAMBURG.  THIS FORCED MOVING EQUIPMENT AND 
PERSONNEL OUT OF HARMS WAY.  ALTHOUGH THE WATER FLOWING THROUGH THE 
PARTIAL FAILURE WAS MINIMAL AND NOT THREATENING INTERSTATE 29 OR 
HAMBURG AS OF 1030 AM...THERE WAS ENOUGH LEAKAGE AND COMPROMISE THAT 
THERE IS A CONCERN OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FAILURE OF THE LEVEE 
BETWEEN THE TWO BREACHES.  A FAILURE OF THE LEVEE IN THIS AREA WOULD 
FLOOD INTERSTATE 29 IN THE VICINITY AS WELL AS SEND FLOOD WATERS 
TOWARD HAMBURG.  THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...HAMBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY SO THAT THEY
MAY TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO CLOSE FLOODED ROADWAYS. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA.

&&

LAT...LON 4059 9562 4059 9574 4060 9575 4061 9575
      4062 9577 4064 9577 4065 9578 4066 9580
      4067 9582 4070 9585 4070 9576

$$

CHERMOK

584 
WGUS73 KOAX 051932
FFSOAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
232 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

IAC071-051934-
/O.CAN.KOAX.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110605T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FREMONT IA-
232 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN 
FREMONT COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE 
AREA...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST FREMONT COUNTY HAS 
BEEN REPLACED BY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING 
CONTINUES IN THE AREA.  THE FEDERAL LEVEE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER 
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF HAMBURG HAS WEAKENED OR PARTIALLY FAILED IN AT 
LEAST TWO PLACES.  A MORE SIGNIFICANT FAILURE WOULD SEND FLOOD 
WATERS OVER INTERSTATE 29 AND INTO PARTS OF HAMBURG AND SURROUNDING 
RESIDENCES. 

PEOPLE WHO LIVE OR PLAN TO TRAVEL IN THE AREA SHOULD 
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS.  
OBEY ROAD CLOSURE SIGNS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE MORE IMMEDIATE 
PRECAUTIONS IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED OR IF ADVISED TO BY 
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

LAT...LON 4059 9562 4059 9574 4060 9575 4061 9575
      4062 9577 4064 9577 4065 9578 4066 9580
      4067 9582 4070 9585 4070 9576

$$

CHERMOK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
319 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN RETURNING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BY MID WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE WAS SPRAWLING WEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING...WITH TIGHTLY WOUND UPPER
LOW OFF THE MIDDLE CALIFORNIA COAST. THAT UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY OPEN UP AND SHIFT ITS TROUGH AXIS TOWARD THE ROCKIES
THROUGH THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HARD TO COME BY FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE AND WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES KEEP STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER BY MID WEEK
SEVERAL IMPULSES EJECTING FROM WESTERN TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN
WESTERN SIDE OF RIDGE...ALLOWING STORM TRACK TO MOVE CLOSER AND
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO SETTLE ACROSS OUR CWA.

THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT WAS STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS
NEBRASKA BORDER. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THIS FRONT CLIMBED WELL INTO
THE 90S ON SATURDAY...AND THIS AIR SHOULD SURGE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TODAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AS UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEW POINTS WERE POOLED ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA RANGING FROM
THE 40S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 70S IN FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR IN LIFTING WARM FRONT AT LEAST
TO INTERSTATE 80 BY NOON...THEN INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST
CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS VERY WEAK...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
STORMS DECLINED TO FIRE DESPITE SURFACE BASED CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG.
SIMILAR LEVELS SHOULD BE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL FORCING...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND INCREASED MIXING SUGGEST VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ALL BUT ASSURED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MIXING DOWN OF 850 AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S
NORTH TO MIDDLE 90S SOUTH TODAY. ON MONDAY SEVERAL LOCATIONS SHOULD
MAKE A RUN AT 100 GIVEN A MORE DEEPLY MIXED LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AND
EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO ON TUESDAY.

AS RIDGE ERODES WITH APPROACH OF UPPER WESTERN TROUGH...A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD SETTLE INTO OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY UNDER COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FRONT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS UPPER FLOW PARALLELS BOUNDARY...SO THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION AS UPPER WAVES MOVE OVERHEAD. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THIS LINE OF THINKING COVERED...SO FEW IF ANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

DERGAN

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK

06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.

DEE

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
407 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

IAZ056-080-091-NEZ016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-
088>090-092-052315-
SHELBY-MONTGOMERY-PAGE-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
LANCASTER-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-PAWNEE-
407 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION THEN STALLS
OUT. SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD...BUT TIMING AND LOCATION WILL HAVE TO BE DETERMINED WITH
LATER OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

IAZ043-055-069-079-090-NEZ011-012-015-034-045-052-053-067-068-091-
093-052315-
MONONA-HARRISON-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-FREMONT-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-
BURT-WASHINGTON-DOUGLAS-SARPY-CASS-OTOE-NEMAHA-RICHARDSON-
407 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION THEN STALLS
OUT. SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD...BUT TIMING AND LOCATION WILL HAVE TO BE DETERMINED WITH
LATER OUTLOOKS.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH INCREASING
RIVER LEVELS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND. RIVER LEVELS
MAY BEGIN TO RISE A BIT MORE RAPIDLY AROUND DECATUR BY MONDAY...
SPREADING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OMAHA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
OUTFLOWS FROM GAVINS POINT DAM CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.