Small Craft Advisory for Winds 1, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
236 AM PDT MON MAR 28 2011

...DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:30 AM PDT MONDAY...VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE THE
SOUTHEAST. VERY LIGHT RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS IN THE MONTEREY AREA.

ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END BY DAWN...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CLOUD COVER. FLAT RIDGE WILL BRING CLEARING AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER TODAY. OVERNIGHT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FOG
IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...AS THE NAM12 IS INDC HIGH BL
MOISTURE THERE TONIGHT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 06Z NAM12 KEEPS
ALMOST ALL RAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH A LITTLE LIGHT
RAIN BRUSHING THE SONOMA COUNTY BORDER. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF KEEPS THE
RAIN FURTHER NORTH. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE RAIN OUT OF THE
DISTRICT...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTN. TUESDAY TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FOG TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

RIDGING WILL BUILD STRONGLY INTO THE DISTRICT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE FLOW WILL BECOME OFFSHORE...AND 850 TEMPS RISE SHARPLY FROM 8C-
11C TUESDAY TO 15-17C ON WEDNESDAY...AND 18C-19CON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A JUMP IN TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS
NEAR OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES WITH THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SOUTHERN
INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD REACH 80 OR HIGHER AS WELL. HIGHS IN THE 70S
WILL BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH 60S TO 70S ELSEWHERE
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. HAVE COOLED TEMPS UP TO FIVE DEGREES OR
SO ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST
LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT THE GENERAL MESSAGE IS THAT A TROF WILL MOVE
INTO THE DISTRICT. HAVE PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SAN FRANCISCO AREA ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MONTEREY
AREA SOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER OVER
THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY COULD BE DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM SUNDAY...WEAK TROUGH WITH LIGHT RAIN
COVERING THE SOUTH BAY COUNTIES AND CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR
OVER THE AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. VFR FOR THE PERIOD.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LOW CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT RAIN.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: STROBIN
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA