Small Craft Advisory 340, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

514 
WHUS76 KMTR 241530
MWWMTR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
830 AM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011

PZZ530-242330-
/O.CON.KMTR.SC.Y.0340.110924T2200Z-110925T0400Z/
SAN FRANCISCO/SAN PABLO/SUISUN BAYS AND THE WEST DELTA-
830 AM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS: WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. 
  STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE AND NEAR 
  ANGEL ISLAND. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

824 
WHUS76 KMTR 242137
MWWMTR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
237 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011

PZZ530-250400-
/O.CON.KMTR.SC.Y.0340.110924T2200Z-110925T0400Z/
SAN FRANCISCO/SAN PABLO/SUISUN BAYS AND THE WEST DELTA-
237 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING. 

* WINDS: WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
  THE STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE AND NEAR
  ANGEL ISLAND. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KT BY LATE EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

802 
WHUS76 KMTR 250338
MWWMTR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
838 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011

PZZ530-250445-
/O.EXP.KMTR.SC.Y.0340.000000T0000Z-110925T0400Z/
SAN FRANCISCO/SAN PABLO/SUISUN BAYS AND THE WEST DELTA-
838 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1109 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOS
PADRES NATIONAL FOREST AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND
INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTIES CONTINUES THROUGH 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT FRIDAY...NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE MOVED NORTHWEST AND INTO MONTEREY COUNTY THIS EVENING. A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE DETECTED IN FAR SOUTHEAST MONTEREY COUNTY
AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING AND BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS THE MONTEREY PENINSULA. ALSO...THUNDER WAS
HEARD IN CARMEL AT ABOUT 8:30 PM. BECAUSE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE HIGH
BASED AND MOVING QUICKLY AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS...THE LIGHTNING THAT HAS
BEEN GENERATED IS ALMOST CERTAINLY DRY LIGHTNING (SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW).

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THE 00Z NAM INDICATES THAT MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THUS...WE CAN EXPECT
CONTINUED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES...
WITH THAT ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
ENDING BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SANTA CLARA AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...BUT ALMOST CERTAINLY NO FARTHER NORTH THAN
THAT.

INLAND AREAS EXPERIENCED ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY WITH THE INLAND
VALLEYS RECORDING HIGHS IN THE 90S AND A FEW LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK (E.G. LIVERMORE AND MORGAN
HILL). EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER INLAND ON SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES INLAND AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. DESPITE
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
PERSISTS NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY DEEPEN BY DAYBREAK...ALLOWING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
INLAND.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
THIS EVENING WITH A NICELY DEFINED COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND STRETCHING
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA SSW TO NEARLY 30N. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS IMPRESSIVE
ON SATELLITE...ESPECIALLY FOR LATE SEPTEMBER...WITH LOTS OF COLD AIR
SPILLING INTO THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.
THE 00Z NAM FORECASTS THE COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO SWEEP ACROSS
NORTHERN CA ON SUNDAY...PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE SF
BAY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. THE NAM WASHES THE FRONT OUT
FARTHER SOUTH AND DOES NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP FALLING SOUTH OF SANTA
CRUZ. BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF MEASURABLE RAIN MAKES IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS MONTEREY OR EVEN BIG SUR BY LATE ON SUNDAY. THE 00Z NAM IS
WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WHERE THE
MODEL NOW DROPS AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS
FROM SAN FRANCISCO SOUTHWARD ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER
TODAY TO DRAW ATTENTION TO THIS EARLY FALL WEATHER SYSTEM.

THE SUNDAY SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY MONDAY RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THE RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHAT THIS MEANS IS A ROBUST WARMING TREND FOR
OUR AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL MEAN WARMING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT FRIDAY...ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE WEAK
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CIGS OUT OF THE SFO BAY AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING. MARINE LAYER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 1000 FEET SO BASES
WILL BE LOW. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING OVER THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. DRY LIGHTNING IS A POSSIBILITY SOUTH OF THE MRY BAY
AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH
HOUR. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO IFR
CONDITIONS BY 18Z AND VFR BY 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS OF 11:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE RED
FLAG WARNING THROUGH 5 AM PDT SATURDAY. SATL IMAGERY AND RADAR ARE
INDC CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SAN LUIS
OBISPO...SANTA BARBARA...AND KERN COUNTIES WITH THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 PM PDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE...RADAR...AND
LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING...MOVING TO THE
NORTHWEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MADE THEIR WAY INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MONTEREY COUNTY SINCE EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
ELEVATED NATURE OF THESE STORMS...THEIR RAPID MOVEMENT...AND THE
DEEP DRY SUB- CLOUD LAYER...BELIEVE THAT MANY OF THE LIGHTNING
STRIKES OCCURRING THIS EVENING ARE DRY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTY THROUGH 06Z (11 PM PDT) THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...RED FLAG WARNING...CAZ517-518 FIRE WEATHER ZONES 517-
            518...SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL
            FOREST AND THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND
            MONTEREY COUNTIES...UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
FIRE WEATHER: DYKEMA/STROBIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1127 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2011

CAZ517-518-241200-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING
PINNACLES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
1127 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE DRY. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 AM PDT SATURDAY MORNING.

*** RED FLAG WARNING...SEE SFORFWMTR WWUS86 KMTR FOR DETAILS ***

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

COOLER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CAZ511>513-516-528>530-241200-
EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-
SANTA CLARA VALLEY...INCLUDING SAN JOSE-
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...ARROYO SECO...AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND CARMEL VALLEY-
NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY-SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST-
1127 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

COOLER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. WARM AND DRY WEATHER
IS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...