Gale Watch 6, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
158 PM PDT SAT OCT 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:35 PM PDT SATURDAY...SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS
THE DISTRICT WITH TEMPS IN THE MAINLY IN THE 70S. PER THE FT ORD
PROFILER THERE IS NO MARINE INVERSION AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH MILD/WARM DAYS AND COOL
NIGHTS.

THE PATTERN CHANGES BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA.
THE SHORTWAVE DROPS FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENTS LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG OFFSHORE EVENT. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE
925 MB WINDS FROM THE NE IN EXCESS OF 40 KT ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF
ALSO IS INDC OFFSHORE WINDS...HOWEVER THE WINDS ARE AROUND 20 KT.
IF THIS PATTERN HOLDS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS THERE WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS.
THIS WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE DISTRICT ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A DEEP
TROF SETS UP ALONG THE COAST BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT. WITH THE FLOW FROM THE NW AND 850
MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO...IT WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL AS
WELL. A RELATIVELY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SATURDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...AND PROBABLY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS WELL. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS NEAR THE
COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY BELIEVE LOW CIGS WILL NOT
AFFECT TERMINALS UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING AT THE EARLIEST. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE SAN BRUNO GAP LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT ONSHORE
FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW CIGS TO AFFECT
THE TERMINAL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXCEPT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY...BUT FEEL THIS IS
UNLIKELY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: STROBIN
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA