Areal Flood Warning 45, NWS Missoula, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
144 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A VERY COOL AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
AND WILL RESULT IN SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 5500 FEET IN NORTHERN
IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA AND 6500 FEET IN THE SOUTHWEST MONTANA
AND LEMHI COUNTY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM IS NOT PACKING
VERY MUCH MOISTURE...SO PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. HOWEVER...SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE
KOOTENAI...GLACIER PARK...SWAN...MISSIONS AND BOB MARSHALL AREAS COULD
SEE LOCAL MODERATE AMOUNTS...UP TO 0.30 INCH. IN ADDITION...SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...POSSIBLY CREATING A
HAZARD TO HIKERS/BACK COUNTRY RECREATIONALISTS AS WELL AS THOSE
TRAVELING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN PASSES AND ROADS. THE WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA WITH AREAS
LIKE FLATHEAD LAKE IMPACTED BY SIGNIFICANT WAVES.

A VERY COOL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE COOL...BUT POSSIBLY MAY PRODUCE
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

DUE TO THE VERY COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...SNOW MELT AND STREAM/RIVER FLOWS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A COOL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE
SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS WELL
AS AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND PARTIAL CLEARING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY...THIS
WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS OVER THE TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CLEARWATER MTNS AND
NORTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY.

&&

NOTE: FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE LISTED BELOW.

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAUCK
LONG TERM....GIBSON
AVIATION...BAUCK