Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Missoula, MT

516 
WGUS85 KMSO 141501
FLSMSO

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
901 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTC093-141511-
/O.CAN.KMSO.FA.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-110714T1530Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SILVER BOW MT-
901 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
EASTERN SILVER BOW COUNTY...

LAT...LON 4595 11244 4594 11253 4604 11258 4603 11243
      4599 11243

$$
KITSMILLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
408 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
DURING MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THIS FLOW SCENARIO WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIOD DURING THIS TIME. THE CULPRIT OF THIS PATTERN IS
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT SMALL SCALE FEATURES WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...LENDING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GREATEST PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE DURING TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...AND AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE
PACIFIC OCEAN.

SUNDAY ONWARD...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO
AT LEAST THE LOW 90S FOR MANY OF THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PRESENT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH
14/2100Z...MAINLY AFFECTING TERMINALS KSMN AND KBTM. HOWEVER...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR BRIEF VICINITY THUNDERSTORM ALSO
EXISTS FOR KMSO DURING THIS TIME. AFTER 14/2100Z...FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH A DIMINISHED THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

NOTE: FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE LISTED BELOW.

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ZUMPFE
LONG TERM....ZUMPFE
AVIATION...ZUMPFE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
617 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ007-141300-
BUTTE/PINTLAR REGION-
617 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SILVER BOW COUNTY UNTIL 700 AM
MDT...

AT 607 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES WEST OF DIVIDE...OR 26 MILES SOUTH OF
ANACONDA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BUTTE...DIVIDE...
SILVER BOW...WALKERVILLE...RAMSAY...NISSLER...NEWCOMB AND JANNEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4575 11250 4568 11254 4562 11266 4566 11272
      4575 11278 4583 11305 4619 11251 4613 11251
      4610 11246 4605 11246 4603 11242 4585 11241
      4577 11221 4574 11219
TIME...MOT...LOC 1217Z 234DEG 34KT 4581 11288

ZUMPFE