Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Morristown, TN

304 
WWUS54 KMRX 152318
SVSMRX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
718 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

NCC043-152327-
/O.CAN.KMRX.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-110415T2330Z/
CLAY NC-
718 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CLAY COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT CLAY COUNTY FOR THE 
REST OF THE EVENING.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...IF NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3499 8400 3502 8396 3505 8397 3514 8385
      3515 8378 3516 8375 3516 8365 3509 8357
      3505 8356 3501 8351 3501 8349 3499 8349
      3498 8397
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 235DEG 36KT 3502 8362

$$

TG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
248 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA...LEAVING MOSTLY
SHOWERS AS INSTABILITY IS LACKING.  HOWEVER...EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT SO WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS AND SIGNIFICANT
FORCING...STILL COULD BE SOME SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
WEST ZONES.  LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT...AS DOES
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES.  HAVE ALREADY SEEN WARNING LEVEL WINDS
AT TIMES IN SOME OF THE NORMAL RISK AREAS...SO HIGH WIND WARNING
LOOKS GOOD.  WHILE MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH RISK FOR GUSTS TO 40 TO KEEP WIND ADVISORY
GOING...AND WILL EXTEND TO 12Z TO MATCH WARNING.  PRECIP SHOULD
RAPIDLY MOVE OUT EARLY SATURDAY...BUT MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS.   WILL STILL BE ON THE WINDY SIDE SATURDAY...AND MAY NEED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT DETAILS ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES AND HIGHER TERRAIN...EARLY PORTION
OF LONG TERM APPEARS GENERALLY DRY WITH TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING TO
ABOVE CLIMO. SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN
STILL OVER THE AREA BY MID WORK WEEK WITH ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED PRECIP. APPEARS THINGS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH BOUNDARY
MEANDERING AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM. THUS HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE PERIODS EVEN THOUGH PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
CONTINUOUS. FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY DID NOT DEVIATE APPRECIABLY FROM
MAV/MEX GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             53  65  41  72  47 / 100  20  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  57  63  40  69  46 /  90  50  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  63  40  69  48 / 100  40  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              54  64  35  67  40 /  90  80  30  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHEROKEE...CLAY.

TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
     EAST POLK...JOHNSON...MCMINN...NW BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER...
     NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST GREENE...
     NORTHWEST MONROE...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
     CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...SULLIVAN...
     UNICOI...WASHINGTON TN...WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...BRADLEY...CAMPBELL...
     CLAIBORNE...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...HANCOCK...
     HAWKINS...JEFFERSON...KNOX...LOUDON...MARION...MEIGS...
     MORGAN...RHEA...ROANE...SCOTT TN...SEQUATCHIE...UNION.

VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: RUSSELL...WASHINGTON.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LEE...SCOTT...WISE.

&&

LDW/LCM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
252 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-161900-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
252 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011 /152 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
TODAY AND TONIGHT PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.