Severe Thunderstorm Warning 363, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
149 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

.AVIATION...CONVECTION FIRING THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WEAK IMPULSE. ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE FOR STRONG
STORM DEVELOPMENT. TRIED TO KEEP FORECAST SIMPLE AND PLACED A
VICINITY THUNDER GROUP IN FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH LATER TIMING FOR
TRI. SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
WEAKENING CONVECTION WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SITES AROUND 06-07Z WITH
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SO INCLUDED AN OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH VCNTY
THUNDER. PERHAPS THE NEXT ACTIVE PERIOD WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AS
THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS BUILDS ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE SO APPLIED
A PREVAILING THUNDER GROUP FOR THE LAST FOUR TO SIX HOURS OF THE TAF.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
500 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-091000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
500 AM EDT (400 AM CDT) MON AUG 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

DMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1251 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

TNZ067-068-083>086-081730-
LOUDON TN-MCMINN TN-MEIGS TN-NORTHWEST MONROE TN-RHEA TN-ROANE TN-
1251 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONROE...MEIGS...MCMINN...
LOUDON...ROANE AND RHEA COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

AT 1248 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF DECATUR...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SWEETWATER...TEN
MILE...MURRAY STORE AND NIOTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1253 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

TNZ035-036-067-068-081730-
ANDERSON TN-LOUDON TN-MORGAN TN-ROANE TN-
1253 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORGAN...EXTREME WESTERN
ANDERSON...LOUDON AND ROANE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

AT 1252 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF WARTBURG...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WARTBURG...
HARRIMAN...OAKDALE...DEARMOND AND PETROS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
139 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

NCZ060-061-TNZ068-071-072-086-087-102-081830-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS TN-CHEROKEE NC-CLAY NC-EAST POLK TN-LOUDON
TN-NORTHWEST MONROE TN-NW BLOUNT TN-SOUTHEAST MONROE TN-
139 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN POLK...BLOUNT...MONROE...
LOUDON...CLAY AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 136 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MADISONVILLE TO 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF DUCKTOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...MURPHY...ANDREWS...
HAYESVILLE...GREENBACK...VIOLET...TARIFFVILLE...HIAWASSE DAM...
UNAKA...CITICO BEACH...CITICO...TALASSEE...HAPPY VALLEY...MARBLE AND
CADES COVE.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

DH