Severe Thunderstorm Warning 304, NWS Morristown, TN

641 
WWUS54 KMRX 222039
SVSMRX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
439 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

TNC107-123-139-222100-
/O.CON.KMRX.SV.W.0304.000000T0000Z-110622T2100Z/
MCMINN TN-MONROE TN-POLK TN-
439 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR POLK...MONROE AND MCMINN COUNTIES...

AT 437 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR TELLICO PLAINS...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF MADISONVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  MOUNT VERNON...COKER CREEK...TELLICO PLAINS AND TARIFFVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3542 8461 3557 8421 3527 8408 3524 8420
      3527 8422 3521 8430 3515 8449
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 253DEG 17KT 3535 8436

$$

GH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
235 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME WEAK
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHOULD PUSH ACROSS OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES.  DEEPER
MOISTURE PROGGED TO PUSH EAST BY 12Z...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER.  SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC TO FIGURE HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS WILL
BREAK UP...SO MAX TEMPS AND AMOUNT OF ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS UNCERTAIN.  FOR NOW WILL FORECAST SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON...AND CARRY 30 TO 40 POPS ALL ZONES.  WILL
GENERALLY ACCEPT MAV MIN TEMPS...BUT WILL TRIM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
FOR MAX TEMPS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...AND BASICALLY SHOW A STAGNANT PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL
LINGER AROUND THE TN RIVER VALLEY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW HELPING TO GENERATE A MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
EVERY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS HINT AT SOME MCS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED...WHICH WILL
LIKELY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL
GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  87  69  88  68 /  70  30  40  40  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  69  86  68  86  67 /  60  30  40  40  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  85  69  86  68 /  60  30  40  40  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  84  64  84  63 /  60  30  40  40  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

LDW/DMG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-231000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
300 PM EDT (200 PM CDT) WED JUN 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A COOL FRONT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
WELL AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A STAGNANT BUT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE EACH
DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ORIGINATING FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EACH DAY...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

DMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
337 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

TNZ085-100>102-222000-
BRADLEY TN-EAST POLK TN-MCMINN TN-WEST POLK TN-
337 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POLK...MCMINN AND BRADLEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 334 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHARLESTON...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CLEVELAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BENTON...ATHENS...
CHARLESTON...ETOWAH...CALHOUN...RICEVILLE...RELIANCE AND DENTVILLE.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.