Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Morristown, TN

567 
WWUS54 KMRX 151728
SVSMRX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
128 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

TNC013-151-151800-
/O.CON.KMRX.SV.W.0251.000000T0000Z-110615T1800Z/
SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL TN-
128 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT
FOR CAMPBELL AND SCOTT COUNTIES...

AT 123 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE 
STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO 
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS 
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. 
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE 
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM THIS 
EVENING.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8399 3640 8390 3640 8395 3629 8398
      3627 8402 3630 8403 3623 8407 3624 8422
      3618 8424 3622 8430 3622 8437 3618 8441
      3618 8446 3636 8470 3641 8467 3661 8476
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 274DEG 38KT 3651 8435

$$

DMG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY ALONG A PADUCAH KY TO HUNTSVILLE AL TO
MACON GA LINE. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWARD TODAY AS A WARM FRONT...AS 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID WEST. AS A RESULT...
DEWPOINTS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS INDICATING A MODERATELY TO POTENTIALLY
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WITH A DECENT MID-LEVEL WIND FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS
WARM FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY
LATER THIS EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SEVERE TSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL...BUT THE INCREASING WIND FLOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING COULD ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

OVERALL...WILL PLAN TO UPDATE THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO RAISE
POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SEVERE STORMS. WILL ALSO TWEAK TEMPS A LITTLE ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST TRENDS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN   88  67  91  66  92 /  60  60  20  20  20
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN     86  66  87  64  89 /  60  60  30  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN             86  66  87  63  87 /  60  60  20  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN    83  61  82  56  86 /  50  70  30  20  30
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DMG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
434 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-160845-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
434 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2011 /334 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...WITH A THREAT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE GRADUALLY EACH DAY...WITH ONLY A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE.

THE THREAT OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1011 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

TNZ082-083-151515-
BLEDSOE TN-RHEA TN-
911 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLEDSOE AND RHEA COUNTIES UNTIL
1015 AM CDT /1115 AM EDT/...

AT 906 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF SPENCER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

DMG